Hurricane Season 2016 Maps, Track, Updates: Storm System Poised to Strike Florida as Hurricane Hermine; Landfall Approach Likened to Katrina
Hurricane experts at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as well as with AccuWeather are closely monitoring a tropical system over the northern Leeward Islands that has potential to strengthen significantly and become Tropical Storm Hermine, the eighth named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season, by this weekend. The system poses a threat to land, as well as a distinct possibility of striking the Florida Peninsula from the southwest as a hurricane, the first hurricane to make landfall in that area and from that direction since Katrina in 2005.
This system, currently dubbed 99L, will reportedly pose a threat to land over the next 10 days, during which it is expected to strengthen from a tropical disturbance to Tropical Depression Eight before being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hermine by late this week, said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Storm system 99L is located approximately 1,300 miles southeast of Miami, Fla., according to AccuWeather's most recent storm update, posted on Wednesday Aug. 24 at 8:24 a.m. EST. Travelling at 15 miles per hour, the system is forecast to continue on in a west-northwesterly path as it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday night and nears Hispaniola by Thursday.
According to Sosnowski, if the system tracks on a path that brings it in very close proximity with the mountainous terrains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, the potential for strengthening could diminish. This was the case with Tropical Storm Erika in 2015, as the storm tracked through the Caribbean islands and reportedly diminished upon landfall in Hispaniola.
However, Sosnowski maintains that the system will undoubtedly strengthen to Tropical Depression Eight soon, and although additional strengthening may not occur until late this week or into the weekend, it will become the eighth named tropical storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Hermine.
"The exact track of 99L will have a big impact on when the system strengthens," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski. "99L has the potential to become very well organized southeast of Florida this weekend."
If 99L tracks in a more northerly direction, staying off the coast of Cuba, rapid strengthening is possible and the system could end up hitting hurricane status upon or even prior to approaching Floridian waters. If, however, it tracks through Cuba, strengthening of the system may be delayed, Sosnowski reports.
"The intensity of the squalls, winds and seas will depend on how quickly 99L strengthens along the way," he said.
According to the experts at AccuWeather, the last time a hurricane struck the Florida Peninsula was in Oct. 2005 when Hurricane Wilma made landfall with battering winds of 120 miles per hour.
"The last hurricane to strike the Florida Peninsula during August was Katrina in 2005; Katrina was also the last hurricane to strike the Florida Peninsula from a southeasterly direction," Kottlowski said.
Weather experts at the NHC are less certain about the likelihood of extreme strengthening for this system, which it has only defined as a "broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave," according to the most recent NHC advisory, posted on Wednesday Aug. 24 at 8:00 a.m. EST.
"Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight and are showing signs of organization, but the system still appears to lack a well-defined circulation," said NHC's Forecaster Brown. "Although environmental conditions are currently only marginally conducive for additional development, this system could become a tropical depression at any time during the next few days."
The NHC says that it is sending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft to investigate the storm system later in the day on Wednesday.
Gusty winds, heavy rains and possible flashfloods and mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and parts of the Bahamas, according to the NHC, which urges the public to consult forecasts from local meteorological offices for further details on the storm.
AccuWeather reports agree that regardless of the strength of 99L as it moves along, gusty showers, thunderstorms and rough seas will impact the areas in the projected path of the storm system. Weather experts warn that seas may become dangerous for boaters out on open waters from the northeastern coast of Cuba through the Bahamas during the coming weekend.
By Sunday, interests along the southeast coast of the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and northern Cuba can expect deteriorating weather, as well as sea and surf conditions, including dangerous riptides and currents.
Sosnowski suggests property owners living within the potential projected path of this storm may want to prepare for potential impact, particularly if it does end up making landfall in the southern U.S. as a hurricane.
Among the preventative measures suggested in anticipation of the approaching storm, as of this point in time, would be to locate and prepare storm shutters, ensure power generators are operational, and especially to closely monitor the progress of this system as it continues to strengthen in the coming days.
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