NBA Finals 2014 Predictions & News: Why Tony Parker's Hurt Ankle May Help Miami Heat Beat San Antonio Spurs Again
The San Antonio Spurs are hoping to pay back the Miami Heat in this year's NBA Finals rematch for the bitter seven-game series loss they were dealt by the Heatles last season, but an untimely injury to starting San Antonio point guard Tony Parker may spell disaster for the Spurs.
Parker, the 2007 NBA Finals MVP and six-time NBA All-Star, is dealing with a sprained right ankle he suffered during Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder, though new reports from Yahoo! Sports state that he is "hopeful" that he will play in Game 1 of the Finals on Thursday.
But "hopeful" drastically underscores what San Antonio fans are feeling just days before the Finals regarding the health of their star point guard. To quote Bon Jovi, "Living on a Prayer" seems like it sums up their sentiment best.
Last year, Parker made himself into quite a nuisance for Miami, averaging 15.7 points and 6.4 assists over the course of their epic seven-game series. This is still Tim Duncan, there's no question that the Spurs go as far as the future Hall of Famer goes, as they have over the last 16 years that the former Wake Forest star has been in the league. However, on the hardwood, it's Parker that has been the straw that stirs the drink for the four-time world champion Spurs. One of the most respected and savvy point guards in the league -- perhaps, arguably, in NBA history -- Parker's skills and his leadership as a floor general have been a big part of San Antonio's last three NBA championship teams. He's central to Gregg Popovich's well-oiled and finely balanced offensive machine. Parker's a gamer, and if he's got to play on one leg in order to get on that court for the Spurs' highly-anticipated rematch with Miami, then he will.
But will a one-legged Parker still make a difference in the series? And if so, who will that difference favor?
Parker's Impact on Spurs' Offense
The picture that a Parker-less Spurs offense paints is not a pretty one. When Parker goes off, which can be at any given moment, he can turn the tide of the game. Consider this: in last year's Finals, in the only two games where Parker scored 20 or more points, the Spurs won both contests. And he dropped 19 in Game 6, in a game where the Spurs would have likely raised their fifth NBA title in victory had Miami's Ray Allen not hit arguably the most three-point clutch shot in NBA Finals history with 5.2 seconds left in regulation. Balance, a pass-first mentality, a mastery of the pick-and-roll and patience in waiting for the right shot are the keys to the Spurs' offense, and Parker has been the guy who keeps the machine rolling with precision and deadly execution. No flash, just pure substance.
Take him out of the equation and things become a bit more iffy. That's not to say that Poppovich and the Spurs won't be able to run their offense, because they will; they're too smart and too battle-tested to not come up with backup plans. But without Parker, the Spurs' top scorer during this postseason (17.2 points in 18 games), the pressure becomes greater on the aging Duncan and Manu Ginobili to produce at higher levels against a younger Miami squad.
Playing Hurt Against Miami a Mistake
Assuming that Parker is still playing, but not at 100 percent, that's also another story. When healthy, Parker is one of the best point guards in the NBA, nimble as a thief, slick as an oil spot, and hard to catch, especially when the Spurs' pick and roll is working to perfection, which it usually is. If Parker's ankle can't take that much pressure, he may find it harder to work around those screens that the Spurs' big bodies afford him. Miami, a very strong defensive team, can exploit that.
And on the subject of defense, the Heat have been the second stingiest team in the playoffs on "D," allowing opponents only 92.1 points during the postseason, second only to the Washington Wizards (89.5 points allowed). After struggling with inconsistency on defense during the regular season, LeBron James and company finally seem to have figured it out on the other end of the floor. They make teams work on offense, and they've been in the right places at the right times to contest shots. If the Heat smell blood in the water with Parker's injury, look for James and Mario Chalmers to put a lot of pressure on Parker on offense. They're going to look to test him off those screens and take advantage of any loss of speed or awkward movements that Parker may be suffering.
Bottom Line
The Spurs need Parker at the end of the day, and even at less than 100 percent, having the veteran out there still would be preferable to having him sit out. And hurt or not, with Parker lacing up his sneakers, you can bet he'll give James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh plenty to worry about, which is exactly what the Spurs are counting on as Duncan and Ginobili look for space to do their thing. But it all depends on how much Parker has in the tank at this point with that aching ankle. Can he still be Tony Parker? Does he have the stuff right now to help the Spurs gain retribution in Heat-Spurs Part II? If not, it may be a foregone conclusion that Miami will three-peat as NBA champions. With Game 1 of the NBA Finals due to start Thursday, we'll all get the chance to find out.
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