US Economy Could Take A Decade to Recover, Experts Say
A recent survey of purchasing managers across the globe claims the U.S. economy could take nearly ten years to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and shutdowns.
The Congressional Budget Office, a budget agency, said the coronavirus triggered a sharp contraction, forcing the agency to mark down next year's forecast for U.S. economic output by at least three percent of the gross domestic product or $7.9 trillion. The CBO also said the GDP isn't likely to catch up to the previously forecast level until late 2029.
The stimulus package, which amounts to $3.3 trillion, will only "partially mitigate" the impact of the virus to the economic conditions.
Economy experts say lifting the lockdown would see an economy running at a level below where it was before the COVID-19 lockdowns.
While the economy is likely to resume growing after this year, experts claimed a vaccine or an effective treatment is needed to turn around global economies. Tim Fiore, who manages the ISM's factory survey, productions will continue to be strained due to a limited number of workers allowed on factory floors as social distancing guidelines are still needed to be observed.
However, the surveys indicate manufacturers may have seen the worst, with activities expected to increase in the coming months.
Stock Market
While the economy is still facing difficulties recovering, the U.S. stock market may have rebounded late march, outpacing other nations. The optimism surrounding state reopenings and the potential development of a coronavirus vaccine has attracted investors, lifting the S&P 500 by 36 percent from its low record in March.
The booming technology sector and the government's relief packages contributed to the United States' outperformance. A recent survey also revealed a high percentage of fund managers-the highest it has been in nearly five years-has deemed the U.S. stocks attractive.
The Bank of America Global Fund Manager claimed their May survey showed 24 percent of respondents were overweight U.S. stocks. Japan's overweight fell by 9 percent, Eurozone's by 17 percent, and the United Kingdom's by 33 percent.
The investors are set to review May jobs reports and quarterly reports from companies for insights into the state of the labor market and consumer behavior amid the pandemic.
Experts credit a surge in tech stocks as the driving force of the U.S. rebound. Tech giants such as Microsoft Corp. and Apple Inc. saw a growth of 16 percent and 8.3 percent respectively.
Investors claim the stay-at-home orders accelerated the dominance of the tech industry which makes up a quarter of the index. "It's done more to accelerate the digital trend that we've seen over the last 10 years than anything else could have done," Mr. Sarfati of GenTrust said.
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