A new poll finds that Republicans are poised to take over the Senate come November, as they would take the upper house at 51-49 if elections were held today. 

According to a poll conducted by CBS News and New York Times Battleground Tracker, Republicans currently have the lead, but a margin of error of plus or minus two seats means there is a possibility that Democrats could keep control of the chamber. Regardless, the midterm elections in November will yield a closely-divided Senate in 2015. 

The Senate is currently 55-45 Democratic, but the poll shows that Republicans have a narrow edge, which is enough for them to take the lead in the Senate. However, the lead is tenuous, with the poll narrowly favoring the GOP in North Carolina, Louisiana, Iowa and Michigan. The slim leads translate to wins in most scenarios, but underlying estimates show that the races could still swing either way. 

Republican gains are most likely to occur in conservative-leaning Southern states like Arkansas and North Carolina. Democrats had an easier time in 2008 when there was a more favorable, less polarized political climate. 

In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is likely to win against Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, and in Georgia, GOP nominee David Perdue would most likely defeat Democrat Michelle Nun. However, the races still remain close. 

Slight Republican wins are estimated to occur in Iowa and Michigan, where Democratic senators are vacating their seats. 

In more liberal-leaning states like Colorado and New Hampshire, there are larger leads for Democrats. In New Hampshire, for example, Senator Jeanne Shaheen is poised to defeat former Senator and possible GOP nominee Scott Brown. Simulations also show that Alaska Democratic Senator Mark Begich is favored to retain his seat. 

The voter simulation model provides information about a state's voters, in addition to historical and demographic data. 

The data is based on more than 100,000 interviews that were conducted online. The poll samples every individual Senate and House race, with matches to voter characteristics in different states and districts. The panel of voters come from all 50 states and around 435 congressional districts. They are interviewed on the Internet, and are weighted to be representative of registered voters based on age, race, gender, education and party affiliation. 

The model also predicts the 2014 vote based on past voting patterns. For example, an 18-24-year-old white female who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 is likely to vote for the Republican congressional candidate in 2014. When there are few voters in a particular group, the model predictions are averaged with the sample, and the model estimates are discounted as the sample size in that particular group increases.  

There are 14 solidly Republican races and 11 Democratic races, not including special elections. Seven seats lean Republican, and two lean Democratic. 

Hence, based on the data, the GOP has a 70 percent chance of gaining control of the Senate. The GOP could therefore pick up eight seats, which would bring their total to 53 seats. Yet, the survey is subject to sampling errors because the panels were disproportionately selected from the most competitive states.