Election 2014 Results: Latinos Impact Midterms as Both Voters and Candidates
Two weeks before the midterm elections, the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) briefed the media on whether Latino voters and candidates could affect the outcome.
There are 7.8 million registered Latino voters, which represents an 18 percent increase from the 6.6 million that voted in the 2010 midterm election, Arturo Vargas, executive director, NALEO Educational Fund told attendees. The number of registered voters is expected to increase to 11.2 million for the 2016 presidential election.
Every day, 2,000 Latinos turn 18 years old in the United States, representing potentially new voters or a person that might be enchanted enough by politics to want to run for election.
Vargas said Latinos are running for attorneys general in two states -- Sean Reyes, Republican in Utah, and Hector Balderas, Democrat in New Mexico, but no Latino candidates are running in any gubernatorial races.
Vargas said in the midterm elections, "there are Latinos running for state House seats, state Senate seats, or congressional seats in 42 of the 50 U.S. states. Latinos have defined themselves now as a national electorate, and national candidate population."
Vargas argued the promise of immigration reform and the lack of action by the Obama Administration until after the election could affect voter turnout.
He also said the Supreme Court decision overturning section 5 of the Voting Right Act in Shelby County v. Holder could affect voter turnout. In June 2013, the Supreme Court overturned a key provision of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. Section 5 of the VRA said states and localities with a history of racial discrimination needed permission, or "preclearance," from the federal government to enact any changes to voting laws.
The Supreme Court voted 5-4 to overturn Section 5, and in its ruling said it did so because the provision was "based on 40-year old facts having no logical relation to today." At the time of the decision, nine southern states were seeking preclearance -- Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia. Since that decision, Arizona now requires voters to prove their citizenship and the Texas law for voters to show ID was just upheld by the Supreme Court after appeals and will be in place for the midterm elections.
There are several states with emerging Latino populations that Vargas thinks could affect closely run races where the margin of victory will likely be only a few points -- Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont.
NALEO organizers also convened a panel discussion, available on YouTube, asking if immigration reform was the sole interest of Latino voters, and were Latino voters a one issue voting block or were Latino voters far more complex and nuanced.
Panel participants were Cristobal Alex, President of the Latino Victory Project, Dr. Viviana Hurtado, creator of The Wise Latina Club and Daniel Garza, executive director, The LIBRE Initiative.
"Immigration is a core issue for Latinos," said Cristobal Alex, president of Latino Victory Project. "There is frustration in the Latino community around that [congressional inaction]."
Alex said in states with competitive U.S. Senate races, advertisements are starting to appear that are anti-immigrant.
"Pat Roberts [Republican running for Senate seat in Kansas] is now running anti-immigration ads to mobilize their base, and the Latino voters are going to remember that. It will cause a boomerang and increase turnout in some places, and equally important we'll remember this in 2016. We will see a one million net increase in voting this cycle, and in states where there is an interest in the Latino community. Colorado and Arizona which have been typically anti-immigrant, that election is being led by the Latino vote," said Alex.
Daniel Garza, executive director with the LIBRE initiative said the delay in executive action by the White House has riled up the Latino community in a way he hasn't seen before. He said there is a sense of betrayal, a sense of anger where the Latino community went from 'hope' to disillusion on a lot of issues from Obamacare, the stimulus that didn't work, Frank Dodd's credit card reform, and the centralizing of power in Wall Street and Washington, D.C.
Garza said what is interesting watching Senate Democrats and Senate Democratic candidates turn their back on the immigration reform program, a key provision of the Senate immigration bill in 2013, like Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, and Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky. Garza recognizes it is in their political interest to do so.
"I do not think it is a question of suppressing the vote, in fact I think people are angry, people want to mete out lesson ... they will come out in a wave," said Garza.
Dr. Viviana Hurtado, creator of the Wise Latina Group, said that in recent polling Latino voters are split -- 58 percent are very angry with the president and the delay on executive action on immigration, but 56 percent are angry with the GOP because of obstructionist politics in Congress. They are also angry with GOP tenor and tone when it comes to painting Latinos in broad brushstrokes.
Hurtado says she's watching southern states, where there have been large demographic changes in Latino residents in North Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas. These states do not traditionally have heavyweight Latino voter bases, unlike Florida, Texas and California. In these newer states, people in politics, campaigns and parties are not yet reaching these people, and she said the Latinos in newer states are talking about jobs, the cost of living, and education as voting issues they are concerned about.
"Immigration -- make no mistake -- is a gateway issue for Latino voters. But it is not the number one issue as we're a very diverse voting block from all different backgrounds, educational levels, geographical backgrounds, but it is an issue that is critical when talking about policies in jobs and on the economy," Hurtado said.
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