New Hampshire Senate Election: Polls Indicate Jeanne Shaheen, Scott Brown Tied, But Democratic Incumbent Predicted to Win
New Hampshire's U.S. senate race could go in former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown's favor as polling data has the Republican candidate tied against the Democratic incumbent.
American Research Group:
Following 600 interviews with New Hampshire residents, Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen and Brown, her challenger, received 49 percent of the poll each. The survey, conducted by the American Research Group (ARG), had 2 percent of likely voters undecided.
Despite the tie, more Republicans were identified than Democrats participating in the poll. According to ARG, 215 Republicans and 181 Democrats were surveyed while 204 were undeclared voters.
Shaheen, however, secured a narrow lead against Brown among the undeclared registered voters with 51 percent to 47 percent respectively. Two percent of undeclared likely voters were also undecided.
ARG split polling figures into two age groups including the 18 through 44-year-olds and 45 and older. Polling numbers between the age groups did not provide a clear victory for either Brown or Shaheen. The 18-to-44-year-old group favored Brown with 50 percent, but Shaheen was only 1-percentage point behind with 49 percent. One percent of voters from this age group were undecided. Brown and Shaheen tied at 48 percent among the 45 year olds and older group, but a slightly higher rate of undecided voters occurred with 4 percent.
When the likely voters were asked to predict the eventual winner on Nov. 4 Election Day, Shaheen received the majority vote with 53 percent ahead of Brown's 41 percent. Six percent were undecided.
WMUR/University of New Hampshire:
The University of New Hampshire (UNH) and television station WMUR conducted its own survey and showed a different outcome compared to the ARG poll. Shaheen received a slightly comfortable lead with 50 percent compared to 42 percent for Brown. WMUR noted Shaheen improved by 2 percentage points from its previous poll, but the overall result still falls within its margin of error percentage (4.2 percent).
Similar to the ARG poll, the likely voters predicted Shaheen will win Tuesday's election with 51 percent to 30 percent favoring a victory for Brown.
The WMUR and UNH poll was conducted between Oct. 22 and Oct. 26 with 555 likely voters.
Real Clear Politics:
Based on eight different surveys conducted between Oct. 16 and Oct. 30, Real Clear Politics averaged Shaheen with a 3.4 percent lead against Brown, specifically 48.9 percent to 48.9 percent respectively.
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