Election Day 2014 Today: GOP Congress Preferred Choice by Likely Voters, Although by Slim Margin
Election Day could end in favor of the Republican Party in Congress, according to polling data consisting of Americans nationwide.
According to the Wall Street Journal and NBC News poll, the Republicans have a slim advantage over Democrats for the preferred political party to control the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. The survey found 46 percent of likely voters favor a Republican-controlled Congress than a Democratic-controlled one; the Democrats received 45 percent.
While the House of Representatives is widely expected to maintain its GOP majority, the Senate control is a toss-up between the two major political parties. Within the 10 states with "most competitive" senate races, likely voters participating in the poll also preferred a Republican-controlled Congress, although by one percentage point.
The slim lead for the Republicans is nearly reminiscent of the 2010 midterm election survey results among likely voters. In 2010, Republicans were also expected to get control of Congress, but earned a 6 percent lead against Democrats. Republicans would win the majority in Congress that year. This year, the odds of Republicans winning control of the Senate are within one percentage point.
It's not all bad news for the Democrats, as the poll revealed there was more interest among the Democrats' "core supporters" than in the Wall Street Journal and NBC News' previous survey. Republican interest in the midterm elections has usually been high, but the survey suggest it is "roughly equivalent" with both major political parties.
Despite the high interest, one group that traditionally votes Democrat may not be as active as hoped. Voters between the ages 18 and 19 are projected to account for 11 percent of the voting electorate, according to the survey estimates, which is down from 2012 but "on par" with the 2010 season.
If the voter turnout among the millennial population, the largest age demographic in the U.S., is low, it may be a disappointment to dozens of national organizations who have made country-wide voter registration efforts toward millennials.
Millennials, however, may also want a GOP-controlled Congress. As Latin Post reported, millennials who definitely plan to vote prefer Republicans to win Congress. Based on Harvard's Institute of Politics (IOP) survey, overall millennials would prefer Democrats to win, but not everyone in the age group are determined to vote. Approximately one-in-four millennials, or 26 percent, said they "definitely" plan on voting, which is a slight decrease from the 27 percent recorded in Harvard IOP's September 2010 survey.
The Wall Street Journal and NBC News poll revealed the most important issues, according to they survey's respondents, is job creation and the economy. Immigration ranked seventh, behind government spending, health care, social security and Medicare and military action against the Islamic State militant group. Women's interests and the Ebola virus rounded up the top 10 issues.
Likely voters also believe Republicans would do a better job dealing with the Islamic State, U.S. economy and "changing how things work in Washington." The Democrats outperformed Republicans on topics including health care, social security and stopping American jobs from traveling abroad.
The poll consisted of 1,200 voters, including 826 likely voters. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 2.83 points among registered voters and 3.41 points among likely voters.
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For the latest updates, follow Latin Post's Michael Oleaga on Twitter: @EditorMikeO or contact via email: m.oleaga@latinpost.com.
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