Oscars 2015 State of the Race: How Will 'Birdman's' Win at Producers Guild of America Change Oscar Race?
Awards season continued to be a roller-coaster ride at the Producers Guild of Americas as "Birdman" surprised and one the highest honors.
Mexican director Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu's film won the Darryl F. Zanuck award and elevated the film to be the front-runner to win the Academy Award. Going into the awards ceremony most pundits expected "Boyhood" to take home the top award especially after the film won the Critics' Choice and Golden Globe awards.
There was also speculation that perhaps "The Imitation Game" or "The Grand Budapest Hotel" could surprise. However, neither one of these films was able to pull off the win.
The "Birdman" win is significant because the PGA has a number of Academy voters. It is known for sometimes shifting the race. For example, in 2010 "The King's Speech" won the PGA over "The Social Network" and the Oscar race changed significantly.
The organization has matched the Oscars during 18 of the last 25 years. In the past seven years, every PGA winner has went on to win the Oscar. These include "12 Years a Slave," "Argo," "The Artist," "The King's Speech," "The Hurt Locker," "Slumdog Millionaire" and "No Country for Old Men." However, it is important to note that the last time the Academy and the PGA diverged was in 2006 when "Little Miss Sunshine" won the PGA and then went on to lose the Academy Award to "The Departed."
In 2005, a similar trend happened when "Brokeback Mountain" won the PGA, but went on to lose the Oscar to "Crash."
"Birdman" has a comfortable lead at the moment, but the momentum could change once the Screen Actors Guild choose their winners. The SAG organization has the most Academy voters and a win at this ceremony could mean the Oscar. While the top Ensemble award does not focus on Best Picture, a number of Best Picture winners have secured wins for Ensemble before winning the Oscar. For example "Argo," "The King's Speech," "No Country for Old Men" and "Crash" all won the top awards at SAG.
Historically a win at SAG and PGA still does not guarantee an Oscar. In 2006, "Little Miss Sunshine" won both those honors and still lost the Academy Award.
Like "Little Miss Sunshine," "Birdman" is not nominated for Best Editing at the Oscars.
In the past, 10 years every Best Picture winner has been nominated for Best Editing. As a result, in order for "Birdman" to keep its lead it must now win the Director's Guild and Writer's Guild. Only then can it sit comfortably as the front-runner.
The last time a film won all four guilds, it went on to win the Oscar. That film was "Argo," and even though it was not nominated for Best Director at the Oscars, the four guilds secured its win. "Slumdog Millionaire" and "No Country For Old Men" also won all four guild awards before winning the Oscar.
In the animated category, the PGA chose "The Lego Movie" and did nothing to clear up at that category. "The Lego Movie" was not nominated for the Oscar, and while it has pretty much swept every precursor, it is unknown what the Academy will eventually choose on Oscar Sunday. Perhaps the Annie Awards will be a better precursor to see how that race ends up.
Meanwhile, "Life Itself" picked up the win for Best Documentary. The category, however, only included one Oscar nominee, "Virunga." "Life Itself" is not nominated for the Academy Award, even though it has been popular among critics. Unlike the animated race, "Citizenfour," which was snubbed at the PGA, has dominated the precursor awards and will likely take home the Academy Award in this category.
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