Oscar 2015 Prediction: 'Boyhood' Wins BAFTA But 'Birdman' Still Has Hope

By Francisco Salazar Feb 09 2015, 12:39 PM EST

After awards season seemed to have been clearing up, the BAFTA awards honored "Boyhood" as the Best Picture of the year.

A day after "Birdman" went home with the Directors Guild of America, it was expected the film would also walk away with the highest honor at the British awards. However, the British Academy surprised most pundits in what was one of the most unpredictable nights in awards season. Aside from the Best Picture honor, "Boyhood" won the Best Director award for Richard Linklater and the Best Supporting Actress award for Patricia Arquette.

So what does the awards say about the Oscar race? In the Best Picture race, it unfortunately did not clear anything up.

"Boyhood" is the presumed front-runner especially after winning the Golden Globe, the Critics' Choice and the BAFTA. However, its consecutive losses at the Directors Guild of America, the Screen Actors Guild of America and the Producers Guild of America are worrisome. These guilds are important because most of the Academy voters are also part of the guilds. Additionally, "Birdman" has won all three, surprising most pundits. The only one that has yet to be announced is the Writers Guild. If "Birdman" wins that over "Boyhood," it will likely win the Oscar.

The BAFTA has diverged with the Academy on some occasions even if the last six years the BAFTAs have coincided with the Oscars. For four years the Academy and the BAFTA chose different films. In 2004 the BAFTA went with "The Aviator" instead of "Million Dollar Baby," and in 2005 the British organization went with "Brokeback Mountain" instead of the Academy's choice, "Crash." In 2006 the Brits went with "The Queen," while the Oscars gave the top honor to "The Departed." The last time both organizations diverged was in 2007 when "Atonement" won the BAFTA and "No Country For Old Men" won the Oscars.

The year currently looks like it could be like 2005 when "Brokeback Mountain" won every major award but ended up losing the Oscar to "Crash." Anything is possible at this point in the race.

The Best Director award continued to be a mystery especially after Richard Linklater lost the DGA but won the BAFTA the next day. The DGA usually has more pull with the Academy especially since 60 of the 67 winners have coincided with the Academy. As a result, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu sits in a comfortable position to win the Academy.

As for the acting categories, the BAFTA coincided with the Golden Globes and the SAG awards only giving Eddie Redmayne ("The Theory of Everything"), Julianne Moore ("Still Alice"), J.K. Simmons ("Whiplash") and Arquette ("Boyhood") the momentum to win the Oscar. The BAFTA are usually good with predicting the Oscar winners because most of the BAFTA actors branch also vote for the Academy Awards.

The below the line categories saw surprising support for "The Grand Budapest Hotel," which won the Best Original Screenplay Award, beating out both "Birdman" and "Boyhood." The film also won the Best Costume Design, Best Makeup, Best Production Design and Best Music. The film will most likely end up going home with at least two of these awards at the Oscars if not more.

"The Theory of Everything" surprised as it won the Best Adapted Screenplay award over "The Imitation Game." "Whiplash" had strong support as it won Best Editing and Best Sound. It is doubtful these two films will repeat at the Academy, but it all depends on how the Guild awards play out.

One race that remains a mystery is the Best Animated film award. "The Lego Movie" repeated its Globe and Critics' Choice win at the BAFTA. However, the film is not nominated at the Academy Awards in this category.

Another big surprise at the BAFTA was "The Imitation Game." The film was shut out of every category even though most pundits expected it win the Best Adapted Screenplay award. The film's loss is a repetition of its loss at the British Independent Film Awards and shows the lack of support the film has been getting on home soil.

"Birdman" also underperformed as it only won the Best Cinematography award. However unlike "The Imitation Game," it still game out victorious in one category.

Complete List of Winners:

BEST FILM: BOYHOOD

DIRECTOR: BOYHOOD Richard Linklater

LEADING ACTRESS: JULIANNE MOORE Still Alice

LEADING ACTOR: EDDIE REDMAYNE The Theory of Everything

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: PATRICIA ARQUETTE Boyhood

SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. SIMMONS Whiplash

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING Anthony McCarten

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL Wes Anderson

EDITING: WHIPLASH Tom Cross

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM: THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING James Marsh, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER: STEPHEN BERESFORD (Writer), DAVID LIVINGSTONE (Producer) Pride