Copa America 2015 Predictions, Analysis: Are Ecuador & Venezuela Dark Horses?
In the ongoing look at the top contenders for the Copa America, this series has identified six teams that are widely consider major contenders. They include host nation Chile, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay and Colombia.
The tournament however includes 12 teams, meaning that the remaining six sides are not widely viewed as top contenders. The remaining six sides (Ecuador, Jamaica, Bolivia, Venezuela, Paraguay and Peru) have combined for five Championships in the tournament with Paraguay and Peru supplying those trophies. However, neither nation has won the tournament since 1979, when Paraguay managed the feat. Bolivia won the tournament as the host nation in 1963 and made the final in 1997. Venezuela's finest moment came in 2011 when the team finished fourth in the tournament and Ecuador's most reputable appearances in the tournament included fourth place finishes in 1959 and 1993. Jamaica is making its first appearance in the tournament.
That said, there are some teams that can emerge from the pile and make major statements starting June 11. Here is a look at black horse contenders in this summer's Copa America.
Venezuela
In the World Cup qualifiers, Venezuela actually made a strong case for itself, putting up 20 points and looking like a potential contender in the final rounds of the qualifiers. A run of four games that featured two draws against woeful Bolivia followed by losses to Chile and Uruguay, two teams the nation in close contention with, ultimately decided its fate. By the time it took down Peru 3-2 in the second-to-last date, Venezuela's fate was already decided.
The team, however, toppled Colombia and even beat Argentina during a 2011 qualifier. Moreover, the Colombians could not beat Venezuela in the qualifiers, drawing with the nation in the other match; this is crucial because Venezuela will be playing Colombia in the opening group stage. A win over the Cafeteros could prove crucial to Venezuela's hopes of advancing.
Ecuador
The Ecuadorians are probably looked upon as more probable contenders than Venezuela for a number of reasons.
The team is actually in an easier group. While Venezuela has Brazil and Colombia to worry about, Ecuador gets Chile, Mexico and Bolivia. Chile is likely a lock for a deep run but Mexico remains a question mark, especially without its full team around. Bolivia is likely the group's punching bag and minnow, giving Ecuador a big opportunity to get through. It certainly helps to get the difficult game out of the way first and then to follow it up with the Bolivia match. A draw against Chile in the opener coupled with a win over Bolivia might be enough to get out of the group. At that point it would be a date with Group C's runner-up, which could be Colombia or Venezuela. Most people would take Ecuador over Venezuela.
Secondly, the team was in the World Cup last summer and despite a poor performance, the Ecuadorians have now accrued the big tournament experience that should help the team in this next round.
Predictions for these six teams
Ecuador finishes third in Group A, but manages a date in the knockout rounds.
Bolivia becomes the perennial punching bag, losing every single game in Group A.
Venezuela also finishes third in its group and also gets a knockout round seed.
Peru maxes out at one point in Group C, if even that.
Jamaica loses all of its games in Group B, while Paraguay finishes second but fails to get to the next round.
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