World's Coffee Crops Threatened by Rising Temps, UN Study Says
It may be time to stock up on your favorite brand of coffee, because flavorful, affordable brews are predicted to go the way of the do-do bird in a few decades or so.
That's one of the many new, ominous findings by the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world's foremost group on climate science, which warns of significant impacts to global coffee production in a comprehensive study due to be released March 31.
The coffee industry reports an estimated 2-billion cups of coffee are consumed throughout the world every day, but a trifecta of rising global heat, extreme weather and growing waves of fierce pests will ravage many of the cool mountainsides where coffee beans typically grow and flourish.
"The overall predictions are for a reduction in area suitable for coffee production by 2050 in all countries studied," the study say, according to a report by the Guardian. "In many cases, the area suitable for production would decrease considerably with increases of temperature of only 2.0-2.5C."
A temperature change of 2.0 degrees Celsius equals 35.6 degrees Fahrenheit
The rise in global temperature is of "great concern for us in the coffee industry because it will, and has already started, putting the supply of quality coffee at great risk," Tim Schilling, executive director of the World Coffee Research program, based at Texas A&M University, said in the Guardian story. "It is also obvious that increasing temperatures -- as well as extreme weather events -- have a very negative affect [sic] on production. Over the long term, you will definitely see coffee prices going up as a result of climate change."
The IPCC report will note that in Brazil, the world's biggest coffee producer, a temperature rise of 3C, or 37.4F, would diminish the area suitable for coffee production by two-thirds in the main growing areas of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, while eliminating coffee production in other regions of the country altogether.
Even though it will become possible to grow coffee in areas further south, the report continues, the new production operations will not make up for the great losses in the north.
An earlier IPCC report released in September projects parts of the world will generally warm between 2.6C and 4.8C, or 36.68F and 40.64F, by the end of the 21st Century without great reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Coffee plants mostly originate from the highlands of east Africa, which have historically provided a comparatively cool and stable climate. However, when temperatures jump above 23C, or 73.4F, the metabolism of the coffee plants rise, resulting in lower yields and an inability to produce the desired combination of volatile, aromatic compounds that give the dark-hued beverage its distinctive and highly-sought taste.
"Climate change is the biggest threat to the industry. If we don't prepare ourselves we are heading for a big disaster," said Mauricio Galindo, head of operations at the London-based International Coffee Organization, an intergovernmental organization that promotes cooperation between coffee-producing countries.
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