Box Office Preview: 'Dawn of the Planet of the Apes' to Repeat Number One Spot Over 'Planes,' 'The Purge' and 'Sex Tape'
A few new releases will compete in the box office this weekend, and it may be hard to pinpoint a winner as none of the upcoming releases are major franchise pictures. As a result, last week's number one film, "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes," will likely retain its crown in theaters nationwide.
The latest "Apes" film got off to a terrific start last weekend with a box office gross of $72.6 million. The film has continued to put up solid numbers throughout the weekend and estimates have the sci-fi thriller dropping about 52 percent and settling in at around $34 million; the film's predecessor, "Rise of the Planet of the Apes," had a 49 percent drop from its first to second weekend and wound up with around $27.8 million in its second weekend. "Dawn's" solid showing thus far has it primed to not only overtake "Rise," but also potentially surpass the $180 million mark of the 2001 remake "Planet of the Apes." "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes" could also become the first film in the franchise to top the $200 million benchmark.
Second place could go to "The Purge: Anarchy." The first installment in the franchise was a smash hit in 2013 as it made a solid $64 million despite costing little more than $3 million. However, horror films such as "Deliver Us from Evil" and "Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones" have flopped or underperformed in 2014. Projections have the film making about $28 million in its debut weekend.
"The Purge" could also struggle with the arrival of Cameron Diaz's "Sex Tape." The comedy could potentially continue Diaz's strong box office streak; the actress' recent film, "The Other Woman," was a huge hit earlier this year. Diaz's last film with director Jake Kasdan was "Bad Teacher," and that film also proved to be box office gold. There are not a great deal of films catering to female audiences, and if recent data proves anything, it is that the female demographic has asserted its power at the box office in 2014. Women were the main target of "The Other Woman" and they remain the primary audience for "Sex Tape." The film is expected to make $23 million but could potentially creep up into second place and overtake "The Purge: Anarchy." It will also be interesting to see how reviews factor into the film's performance. "Sex Tape" currently has a 26 percent approval rating on aggregate website Rotten Tomatoes. Bad word of mouth could hamper the movie as the weekend unfolds.
The other major debutant is "Planes: Fire and Rescue." The original film in the franchise, which was released last year, had a terrific debut with a domestic gross of over $90 million. The sequel could match that number, especially given the lack of animated and family films out on the market right now. "How to Train Your Dragon 2" is the only major competition in that market, but that sequel has been out for weeks and lacks the novelty of "Planes." The film could potentially suffer from poor reviews; it has a 30 percent approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. Many sequels have struggled this summer, not only due to franchise fatigue, but because of poor reviews. "Planes" could be the next one to follow the same path. The film is expected to make around $20 million this weekend.
"Transformers: Age of Extinction" will likely round out the top five with about $7.7 million. The robot sequel is on pace to become the worst-grossing movie in the franchise, despite opening with the second best weekend of the four. The $7.7 million would put the film at around $225 million, which would be almost $60 million less than the total domestic gross of the original film in the franchise after its fourth weekend. The film is currently on pace to finish below the $300 million mark domestically; it would be the only film in the franchise to fail to achieve this goal.
Other films expected to finish in the top 10 are "Tammy," "22 Jump Street," "How to Train Your Dragon 2," "Earth to Echo," and "Malificent."
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