Real Madrid vs. Juventus Predictions, Analysis: Which Side Boasts the Superior Midfield & Forwards in Champions League Semifinal?
The Real Madrid and Juventus battle will feature two of the most impressive attacking sides in all of Europe. Both teams have renowned attacks as well as impressive midfields that will make this battle as close to evenly matched as it gets.
But which side has the edge?
Real Madrid - Toni Kroos, James Rodriguez, Isco, Cristiano Ronaldo, Chicharito, Gareth Bale, Karim Benzema
With the injuries mounting, there is actually no way to know exactly what Carlo Ancelotti does in the midfield. Does he go with a 4-3-3 or go with a 4-4-2? Without Luka Modric and Gareth Bale the former option becomes a tricky proposition. Rodriguez and Kroos are locks with Isco likely fitting in the final midfield position. But then what do you do with the front three? Chicharito and Benzema, assuming he plays, cancel one another out. Ronaldo is a lock, but playing alongside Chicharito and Benzema would make for a rather immobile front line that will actually be easy for Juventus to defending, especially in the 3-5-2 formation.
Jese Rodriguez would be an obvious option, but he has yet to prove himself ready to make an impact. Of course, Isco could slide up to play right wing with Benzema and Ronaldo, but then Ancelotti would have a midfield spot to fill. He can go back to his quarterfinals risk and use Sergio Ramos as a holder behind Kroos and James, but it could backfire as it is not Ramos' natural position. Or he could gamble on Lucas Silva and Asier Illarramendi; the latter was woeful this past weekend against Almeria while the former has yet to truly prove himself as a full-time starter.
A 4-4-2 seems like a better proposition at the moment with Ronaldo and Benzema up top and a midfield that features Rodriguez and Isco on the flanks with Kroos and Silva in the midfield. This insulates Kroos and Silva better and gives the team a bit more balance in the middle of the pitch, something that will be essential against a tight midfield that Juventus will produce.
Then there are question in attack. Ronaldo has actually struggled to score since being paired with Chicharito up front. The Mexican has benefited from being the target man because he becomes the main outlet in attack while Ronaldo is relegated to a supporting role.
With Benzema, Ronaldo becomes more pivotal as the Frenchman has stronger playmaking acumen over the Mexican. But the main issue of course is Benzema's form. He is currently injured and might not be on hand to play this game. However, if he is eligible to play, there is a question of his effectiveness up front.
Juventus - Claudio Marchisio, Andrea Pirlo, Carlos Tevez, Alvaro Morata, Fernando Llorente, Paul Pogba, Stephan Lichtsteiner, Roberto Pereyra, Arturo Vidal, Stefano Sturaro
Notice the difference between the two lists? Depth is an important thing. And it is one reason why Juventus has been able to overcome the loss of Paul Pogba to injury. The Frenchman has been ruled out of the tie, but Massimiliano Allegri has a plethora of options at his disposal.
Formation will be a big question. Most think he will employ a 3-5-2 to flood the midfield and cut off Real Madrid's passing game; Juventus is actually a team that values possession as well and being able to cut off Madrid's supply lines will be a part of the game plan.
But Allegri has not shied away from a 4-3-1-2 or the 4-1-2-1-2, formations that have yielded strong possession numbers as well.
In a 3-5-2, Lichtsteiner and Evra essentially turn into wingbacks, playing high up the pitch on the attack, but tracking back to cover and turning the defense into a 5-3-2. Since the team is already deploying five midfielders, Allegri gets the advantage of knowing that he has other players that can track back to cover for either Evra or Lichsteiner whenever they move forward.
In a 4-3-1-2, Evra and Lichsteiner sit back on defense and allow Pirlo to work from deep with Marchisio and Pogba on his flanks. Without Pogba, Vidal has been moved to one of the midfield flanks and Pererya has been pushed up behind the two forwards. In the 3-5-2, Pereyra becomes the odd man out.
The reality is that Allegri has a number of strategies at his disposal, which makes his deployment more unpredictable.
One constant is the top two forwards. Llorente and Tevez are the top pairing, with one offering speed (Tevez) and the other providing size and presence in front of goal (Llorente). Of course Morata could also provide additional speed and Allegri has deployed both Tevez and Morata to pressure opposing defenses. The beauty of two men up top of course is that it comprises the oppositions defenders.
While Juventus could deal with a 4-3-3 or 4-4-2 with its 3-5-2 (it would outnumber the central attackers in the 4-4-2 or the point man in the 4-3-3), Madrid would be left exposed defending the two Juventus attackers in its current formation. The center backs would be pushed back and less likely to join in the attack and even the two fullbacks, Marcelo and Dani Carvajal, would have to be cautious in making their forward runs. Moreover, the player holding, usually Kroos, would have to track back more to help out the two center backs.
By the numbers
Madrid averages 18.8 shots per game in the UCL; Juventus manages 13.2 shots per game. Of those shots, 7.8 are on target for Los Blancos while only 4.9 of Juventus' shots find their way toward goal. The Italian side actually has a better shooting percentage in this respect, making them dangerous on the attack. Madrid is superior at dribbling over Juventus, but the Italian side actually bosses possession more often than the Spanish side. Which means that this game will be an interesting chess match with each side looking to win possession for itself. Madrid is better at connecting on its passes than the Italian squads but is inferior in the air. Everyone knows of Madrid's weakness on set pieces, and this could be a huge boon for Juventus.
Madrid has scored far more goals in this tournament than Juventus (22-13) but has also conceded more.
Edge: It is tough to choose here. By reputation and past records, Real Madrid has a better attack and midfield. But there is no denying that with its injuries, Madrid's midfield suffers a huge blow. Meanwhile, Juventus, despite the loss of Pogba, is still deep enough to compensate.
With everyone healthy, Madrid has the edge, but as things stand heading into the tie next week, Juventus has the upper hand in the midfield.