2016 Election Polls: Hillary Clinton Encounters Setback in New Hampshire Poll With Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio
The 2016 New Hampshire primary, which will be the country's first national party primary election, could spell trouble for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton depending on her Republican challenger.
"If the Democratic primary field remains comparatively uncompetitive, Clinton will glide to a primary victory in New Hampshire as her core Democratic voter base is about as solid as one could hope for more than nine months from the New Hampshire primary," said Ronald Shaiko, a senior fellow and associate director of the Nelson A. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College.
"[Clinton's] electoral success in November of 2016 in New Hampshire, however, is far from certain."
Dartmouth College conducted a poll putting Clinton in hypothetical Republican Party candidate match-ups. If Clinton was to face Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, the former secretary of state encountered a narrow victory. Clinton received 36.5 percent to Christie's 34.4 percent, but 30.3 percent of the survey's respondents were unsure.
Clinton also received a narrow lead against Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. Paul, who has announced his candidacy for president. Paul received 33.3 percent of support, but Clinton outperformed him with 36.1 percent. Approximately 30 percent of voters were unsure.
Two Republican Florida politicians provided a tougher challenge for Clinton: former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio.
In a 2014 poll questionnaire of a Clinton-Bush match-up, Clinton attracted 42.2 percent of support, almost double-digits higher than the 32.3 for Bush. In the 2015 poll, the Clinton-Bush hypothetical match-up "changed significantly." According to Dartmouth, the latest poll saw Bush receiving 36.9 percent, ahead of Clinton's 34.1 percent, while 29 percent of respondents were unsure.
The 2015 poll between Clinton and Rubio resulted in a "virtual tie." Clinton received 34.5 percent, but Rubio was 0.1 percent behind with 34.4 percent. Within the Clinton-Rubio match-up, 31.1 percent of respondents were unsure.
Clinton improved her numbers against Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas. Clinton led by more than 10 percentage points and defeated Cruz with 39.6 percent to 28.7 percent, with 31.7 percent unsure.
Current Republican Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who has not announced his candidacy for president, did rate better than Clinton. Walker defeated Clinton by a four-point margin, specifically 38.7 percent to 34.8 percent, but 26.5 percent were unsure.
"[Clinton] has work to do in New Hampshire," Shaiko said in a statement, noting the trend among the poll's independent voters could indicate trouble for the Clinton's campaign.
"In the seven trial heats, Clinton beats only Cruz and [Republican former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee] among undeclared/independent registered voters in the sample by 8 points and 4 points, respectively. In last year's poll, Clinton beat Huckabee by 13 points among undeclared voters. She also beat Paul by 5 points, Christie by 3 points and Bush by 21 points. This year, Bush beat Clinton among undeclared voters by 9 points."
The Dartmouth College poll noted all match-ups except the Clinton-Cruz questionnaire fell within the poll's margin of error. The poll was conducted between April 27 and April 30, with 355 New Hampshire residents participating.
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