How Supreme Court Hearing Obama’s Immigration Case May Affect the 2016 Presidential Election
In five months, the Supreme Court will make another landmark ruling during President Barack Obama's final term in office.
Unlike last summer's decisions to legalize same-sex marriage and uphold portions of the Affordable Care Act, the Supreme Court's verdict on Obama's immigration executive action -- programs aimed at staving off deportation for millions of undocumented individuals -- may come weeks before Democrats and Republicans converge to elect each Party's presidential nominee.
Republican presidential candidates campaign on enhanced national security and immigration efforts, including placing restrictions on who receives work visas; Democrats argue that there are ways of keeping the country safe without alienating immigrants, or deterring them from legally coming to the United States. But the justices may be throwing a monkey wrench into one Party's plans. Given that a verdict will come five short months from Election Day 2016, it may not give candidates on the losing end much time to recover.
The Repeal of DAPA and DACA
Obama unveiled two reforms efforts in November 2014. First, he expanded on the 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), while the other implemented the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA), which would help 4.3 million undocumented parents stay alongside their U.S. citizen or permanent resident children.
Texas, along with 25 other states, challenged the constitutional legality of the president's efforts. The U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals agreed because, among others things, the Department of Homeland Security "lacked the authority to implement the program even if it followed the correct rulemaking process."
Republican candidates have stood by the court's decision, and many vow to nullify Obama's executive action upon their first days in office, if elected. Republican front-runner Donald Trump stanchly favors mass deportations of immigrant Latinos and a ban on some, not all, Muslims. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz rebuked Trump's outlandish ideas, but is still open to building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Marco Rubio, who once championed immigration reform legislation, says he will end DACA, even if Congress doesn't pass any other form of protection for them.
The Supreme Court's reaffirmation of the lower courts would move the conversation from debating DAPA and DACA's legality to creating a plan to deport most of the 11.3 million undocumented immigrants living in the country. This would be a big win for Republicans -- it might even swing a few Independent votes in their direction -- but that would leave GOP strategists with the problem of winning the Latino vote.
A record-high 27.3 million Latino are expected to cast a ballot on this November. Nearly 12 million will be eligible to vote for the first time. One can safely assume a majority of these millennials are family or know someone who would directly be affected by the Supreme Court's decision. GOP candidates run the risk of antagonize youths by speaking too fondly of their proposals.
For Democrats, the challenge would be in convincing Latino voters that their nominee -- be it former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders or former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley -- can succeed where Obama couldn't. They would have to tap into a disenfranchised voter base who witnessed the repeal of two vital immigration reform programs.
Allowing DAPA and DACA to Proceed
Conservatives who met the Supreme Court decisions on Obamacare and same-sex marriage with scrutiny will have another reason to rile up their supporters. Waning Republican candidates will double-down on promises to repeal DAPA. The front-runner will have to convince right-leaning voters that his or her goal of tightening the border can still be accomplished.
Just as importantly, they'll have to sway Latinos into voting GOP.
Obama likely won't have time to fully implement the programs, leaving the Democratic nominee with an opening to the Latino vote. Clinton alienated potential voters with her seemingly disingenuous #NotMyAbuelita Twitter campaign that drew immediately backlash. Sanders, who lags behind Clinton in national polls concerning Latinos, hasn't done much to court them.
An impreMedia/Latino Decisions poll conducted last November found 14 percent of registered Latino voters in 14 battleground states didn't know who Sanders was. Most favored Clinton by a 38-to-16 margin. Thirty-six percent of respondents said immigration was a pertinent issue in choosing their candidate.
Clinton and Sanders don't automatically win with a reprieve of DACA and DAPA. They'll have to alleviate concerns about another terrorist attack, and argue how allowing undocumented immigrants to stay won't burden the U.S. economy. Undecided voters need to know why the Supreme Court would rule in favor of granting parents and children a stay at a time when the national debt tops $18 trillion.
Regardless of the SCOTUS verdict, potential voters will have more to consider on Election Day.
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