"The Big Short" won the Producers Guild of America in a twist that surprised pundits and changed the Oscar race.

In yet another upset "The Big Short" defeated "Spotlight" and became the front-runner to win the Oscar in February. Most pundits went into the awards ceremony believing that it would be "Spotlight" that would win the award and continue to maintain its status as the front-runner. However, the Tom McCarthy film showed its weakness.

With a loss at the Producers Guild of America, "Spotlight" must now count on a win from the Screen Actors Guild, a Director's Guild award and the Writers Guild of America award. However, most expect it to lose the DGA as it is expected to go to George Miller for "Mad Max" or Adam McKay for "The Big Short."

The PGA is an important award because the last eight Best Picture winners have won the PGA and the Guild also has the same voting system as the Academy. The last time the Academy and the PGA diverged was in 2006 when "Little Miss Sunshine" won the PGA and "The Departed" won the Oscar. In 2005 "Crash" won the Oscar while "Brokeback Mountain" won the PGA.

"The Big Short" is one step closer to Oscar glory, especially after last year and 2011. Last year "Boyhood" dominated the precursor awards, winning the Golden Globe and BAFTA and was thought as the front-runner for the Oscars. However, "Birdman" won the PGA and the race radically changed, making "Birdman" the ultimate Oscar winner. The same thing happened in 2011 when "The Social Network" dominated every single precursor save for the BAFTA. However, when the PGA awards were announced, it was "The King's Speech" that prevailed and ultimately went home with the Oscar.

"Spotlight" had shown weakness with the Guilds and some precursors especially after losing the Golden Globes and only obtaining three BAFTA nominations. The film also missed out on the EDDIE Awards. However, it seemed to regain momentum when it won the Critics' Choice and had a strong showing with the Academy.

After a number of months figuring out who the race would come down to, it seems that "The Big Short" and "Spotlight" are the two top contenders. If "The Big Short" is to win the Oscar, it would be the first December movie in a while and would also be the latest film not to hit Telluride, Toronto or the Venice Film Festivals. Meanwhile, if "Spotlight" wins it would be the latest Telluride and Toronto premieres.

The next major awards are the SAGs where the acting races and the Best Picture should be settled.