Box Office Predictions: Can Zac Efron & Seth Rogen's 'Neighbors' Take Down 'Amazing Spider-Man 2?'
"Neighbors" and "The Amazing Spider-Man 2" are set to face off for the number one spot at the domestic box office this weekend.
The raunchy comedy starring Seth Rogen and Zac Efron is receiving rave reviews and has generated a lot of buzz. The film currently has a 79 percent aggregate score on Rotten Tomatoes and is slated to open between $30-40 million. However, the opening will depend on how audiences respond to the movie and if its R rating does not hamper its potential. Past R-rated comedies to make more than $35 million in their opening weekend include "21 Jump Street" "The Heat," "Ted" and "The Hangover." All these films benefited from A-list actors and that is something "Neighbors" has in common with films; both Efron and Rogen have devoted fan bases. While pundits have high hopes for the movie, Universal is betting low and hopes that it makes around $20 million its opening weekend. "Neighbors" will open in 3,279 theaters.
"The Amazing Spider-Man 2" is also hoping to take in another $35-40 million. The movie has done well in its first week and has already made $107 million. However, the movie will need to rely on good word of mouth. Reviews have been mixed and audiences currently have franchise fatigue. "The Amazing Spider-Man 2's" current box office is behind the first "The Amazing Spider-Man" and "Captain America: The Winter Solider," which opened on par.
"The Other Woman" is likely to be the third place film of the weekend. The movie has already made $51 million in its first two weekends, but is likely to face competition with Sony's new release "Mom's Night Out," which has female leads. Nevertheless, the Fox release is likely to make $8.1 million and bring its gross to $60 million.
Sony's new release "Mom's Night Out" is opening in 1,044 theaters. The studio is targeting Christian moviegoers and hopes to obtain the same audience that went to see "God's Not Dead" and "Heaven Is for Real." The content is not as faith-based, but the movie does have a family-oriented plot and it ties in with the Mother's Day holiday. However, the movie is unlikely to reach the heights of those other Christian films and will probably open with $5 million.
Clarius Entertainment is debuting with "Legend of Oz: Dorothy's Return" in 2,641 theaters. The movie currently has terrible reviews and has an aggregate score of 8 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. "Legend of Oz" has had a solid marketing push and the fact that there is currently no family animated film in the marketplace works in its favor; the movie could open better than expected. However, the movie's trailer hints at low production values and as a result Clarius could be looking to debut between $5-10 million. That could be on par with "Happily Never After" ($6.6 million) and "Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil" ($4.1 million).
In sixth place, "Heaven Is for Real" will continue its successful run. The movie has already made $67.6 million and should easily add another $5 million to its gross. That should put "Heaven is for Real" at $72 million by the end of the weekend. The faith-based film is now the fifth-highest grossing Christian movie ever.
Meanwhile, Jon Favreau's indie hit "Chef" will open in six theaters. The movie should easily attract audiences with its star-studded actors. In particular, Sofia Vergara and Scarlet Johansson should easily help the movie have a successful opening. Johansson has already had two box office hits with "Under the Skin" and "Captain America: The Winter Soldier" while Vergara has attracted audiences with "Fading Gigolo." "Chef" will also benefit from its rave reviews and it successful screenings at the Tribeca and SXSW Film festivals.
Radius TWC will open "Fed Up," a documentary about America's dirty secrets in the food Industry. The movie premiered at the Sundance Film Festival where it received rave reviews. The company will open the film in 16 theaters.
Meanwhile, Tribeca Film's will open the critically-acclaimed "Palo Alto" starring James Franco and Emma Roberts. The distribution company is changing its usual distribution strategy and instead of taking it out on VOD first, it will release the movie in theaters and later on VOD.
IFC Film's "God's Pocket" is generating a lot of buzz especially because it is Philip Seymour Hoffman's penultimate film. However, poor reviews and the fact that it will open on VOD could hurt its box office.
Magnolia is also releasing the critically acclaimed "The Double." The second feature by Richard Ayoade stars Jesse Eisenberg and Mia Wasikowska and is heading into theaters with lots of buzz. The movie will open in select theaters and VOD.
Meanwhile, Sony Pictures Classics will expand "Only Lovers Left Alive" into 92 theaters. The film has had a successful run and has already made $786,361.
The Weinstein Company will add another 17 theaters to "The Railway Man" and bring its theater count to 181. Even though the film has rave reviews, the film, which stars Colin Firth and Nicole Kidman, has underperformed. It is unlikely that the additional 17 theaters will make a difference this weekend.
A24 will also expand "Locke" into 65 theaters. The film has already made $246,639 and is on track to reach the $1 million mark in a few weeks.
Fox Searchlight will make the biggest expansion and will open "Belle" in 45 theaters. The movie has already made $136,008. However, similar period films, such as "The Duchess," "Anna Karenina" and "The Young Victoria," have recently disappointed at the box office and this weekend will be crucial for "Belle's" potential.
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