Presidential Polls 2016: Donald Trump Leads With 45.1 Percent vs Hillary Clinton's 41.9 Percent in Latest L.A. Times Poll
Donald Trump tops Hillary Clinton by three points in the latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak poll, a sharp contrast from the flood of recent national surveys that show Clinton solidly ahead of her republican challenger.
Overall, Daybreak pollsters found that even though Trump also trials Clinton in most battleground state polls, a bloc of disaffected voters remains large enough to possibly swing the election in his favor.
As it currently stands, Trump leads Clinton 45 percent to 42 percent, well within the poll's margin of error. Meanwhile, a recent Real Clear Politics averages poll found Clinton leading Trump by better than five points.
Poll Weighted in Trump's Favor?
Surveyors noted that the same collection of voters is the primary reason why Daybreak poll numbers have significantly and consistently differed from those gathered by other polls, as they offer something of a best-case-scenario for Trump by placing more emphasis on voters who haven't cast a ballot in recent times but insist they plan to this time around.
That group appears to be driving Trump's raised percentages in the Daybreak poll as tabulations project him leading among that group, thus offsetting the deficit he faces against his democratic challenger among voters who did go to the polls back in 2012.
Meanwhile, poll respondents who did not vote in 2012 but insist they are now all in for Trump were found to be disproportionately white and non-college graduates, a group consistently found to be among his biggest supporters.
Almost six in 10 of the 2012 nonvoters fall into that group. By contrast, non-college-educated whites make up about four in 10 of the poll respondents who did vote four years ago.
Even with the design of the poll stacked in his favor, pollsters note the fact that Trump seldom does better than a tie against Clinton seems problematic for republicans.
Trump's Rhetoric
Pollsters also found in some cases Trump has seemed to be his own worst enemy, as numbers for the political neophyte has significantly declined ever since he started publicly insisting the election was rigged against him.
Trump is slated to give a much anticipated speech on immigration on Wednesday that figures to be critical to any chance he has in Novemeber's general election. In times past, he has vowed to deport as many as 11 million undocumented immigrants and build a wall along the Mexican border to further keep them at bay.
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