A group of Mexican scientists warned that the COVID-19 outbreak in the country could peak by late April using the two epidemiological models.

Present COVID-19 Cases in Mexico

COVID-19 cases continue to increase around the globe. At present, the number of cases has already reached 2.8 million and claimed the lives of more than 200,000 according to real-time data gathered by worldometers.

In Mexico, there are currently 14,677 cases of COVID-19 with a death toll of 1,351. This high number has forced some hospitals to turn away patients because they are not capable of caring for such large numbers according to a report published by Latin Post.

Mexico is the fourth country in Latin America with the highest number of COVID-19 but the highest in the region when it comes to the ratio of COVID-19 and death toll, according to Statista. The country is below Brazil, Peru, and Chile.

COVID-19 Outbreak Peak in Mexico According to Scientists

A group of Mexican scientists from the National Autonomous University of Mexico has forecasted that there will be a peak of COVID-19 outbreak in the last two weeks of this month. The scientists used two epidemiological models in predicting the peak.

However, this is contrary to the prediction of the Sentinel Surveillance System, which is used by Mexico's Health Ministry. Using this system, it revealed that the peak of the virus would happen during the first and second week of May.

Epidemiological models are essential in predicting the expected number of infections during a pandemic. These models are using theoretical calculations and are interpreted by mathematicians, statisticians, and epidemiologists.

The SIR epidemiological model contains the number of susceptible, infected, and recovered patients, while the SEIR model gives data of vulnerable, exposed, infected, and recovered patients. These are two mathematical dynamics used at present in projecting or predicting the number of COVID-19 cases in the coming days.

How Important Are These Models?

These models are critical in guiding government officials and health authorities in deciding health strategies to contain the spread of the virus.

Victor Velasco Herrera, a researcher of the Geophysics Institute of the National Autonomous University of Mexico, said that the efficiency of any models depends on the quality of data entries that are feed to the models.

It is also essential to take note that the researchers from UNAM did not only work on forecasting the behavior of the COVID-19 outbreak in Mexico but also in Italy, the U.S., and Russia. Moreover, the forecasts made by the researchers in the three other countries were very accurate and efficient.

The two models show an increase in infections in the country. This means that the government and health officials warned that hospitals would be saturated in the coming days, either it is during the last two weeks of April or the first two weeks of May.

The researchers and scientists warned that the forecasts made should not be overlooked because if a long-term plan is not implemented in high-risk Mexican states, the situation could be worse than in Italy.

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