COVID-19 “Curve Not Flattened” In Mexico Despite Health Ministry Claim, Expert Say
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Despite Mexico Deputy Health Minister Hugo López-Gatell's claim that the coronavirus curve is flattening, an epidemiologist from National Autonomous University (UNAM) thinks otherwise, according to a recent article.

Malaquías López Cervantes, UNAM COVID-19 Commission spokesman, said that without complete and updated information from the federal government's sentinel surveillance system, which collects data about confirmed and possible coronavirus cases from 375 different health care facilities and extrapolates them to estimate the total number of cases in Mexico, there is no certainty that the curve has flattened.

Based on the sentinel system, the Health Ministry estimated last month that there were about eight undetected COVID-19 cases for every confirmed one. However, this is the latest data presented by the ministry, and so far, it has not introduced new sentinel system estimates for almost three weeks.

The UNAM epidemiologist also said it is absurd to claim that the number of COVID-19 infections reported daily is remaining stable or going down, as the Health Ministry predicted, considering the transmission period has not yet peaked.

"They said that we would reach the peak on May 6; supposing that is true, how can we say that the curve has already flattened ... if we haven't yet reached the peak?" he said.

In a recent update, the health ministry updated the forecast to May 8.

López Cervantes added that health authorities have concluded "hastily" when they claim the success in the measures implemented to limit the spread of coronavirus. Additionally, the number of cases still being detected despite low testing rates reflects that the measures have not been as successful as the Health Minister thinks, Lopez said.

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He also said that health officials should refer to the curve and predictions about the pandemic on sentinel system case numbers rather than those for confirmed cases whenever they give commentaries.

If predicting the real number of COVID-19 cases in Mexico since the beginning of the pandemic is based on the government's previous sentinel system estimates, it would now be more than 230,000. This figure would be much higher than the 29,616 reported on Thursday.

The epidemiologist also lamented on the frequency of the occasions where the Health Ministry has provided estimates from its sentinel system, claiming that it is also withholding other information about the COVID-19 situation in Mexico.

The UNAM academic also criticized the government for not prioritizing the purchase of ventilators before the peak of the pandemic.

"I think it's wrong to wait until people are getting sick to start the purchasing processes. I believe that they could have started all the purchasing processes in advance," López said.

Flattening the curve means slowing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic so that the peak number of people requiring healthcare at a time is reduced, therefore not overwhelming the health system. And unless Mexico's Health Ministry provides the real figures, "the curve has flattened" will only remain an assumption.