Box Office Preview: 'Transformers: Age of Extinction' to Open with $100 Million
"Transformers: Age of Extinction" is set to win the box office and potentially have the best opening of the year.
The fourth installment of Paramount's lucrative franchise is set to open in 4,223 theaters and will likely make $100 million. That would be on par with the third installment, "Dark of the Moon," which opened with $97 million on the same weekend in 2011. However, this time around, the Michael Bay action movie could struggle, since the cast is new.
Moviegoers sometimes do not take well to reboots, especially when they are so recent. For example, in North America, "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" made only $241 million, the lowest total of any of the franchise's movies. Additionally, summer blockbusters generally underperform, and that could hurt the new "Transformers" movie. And moviegoers seem to be going through franchise fatigue, as indicated by the lackluster takings of "The Amazing Spider-Man 2" and even "Godzilla."
Finally, run time and reviews could hurt the film's grossing power. "Age of Extinction" is 165 minutes long, which could limit the number of show times possible, and reviews have been extremely negative, which could dissuade many non-"Transformers" fans from attending. However, in the past few years, "Transformers" headliner Mark Wahlberg has become a huge box office draw, and the lack of competition from other blockbuster films could easily boost "Age of Extinction."
The Channing Tatum-Jonah Hill starrer "22 Jump Street" will likely hold its No. 2 position and bring in $14.5 million, taking its total to $139 million. As a result, the second installment will likely surpass the original's $136 million box office gross.
Animated feature "How to Train Your Dragon 2" will likely drop another 45 percent. The film held strong during the week and has already made $108 million. This weekend, it should bring in $14.2 million, which would bring its total to $122 million.
Last weekend's No. 1 hit, "Think Like a Man Too," will likely plummet and make only $12 million. These types of comedies usually get the majority of their audience over the first weekend and quickly die out. While "Think Like a Man Too" took the top spot last weekend, the film's daily gross has been lackluster, and it fell to third place over the week. Expect a $50 million total by the end of the weekend.
Disney's "Maleficent" is likely to continue its steady hold and bring in an additional $8 million. That would bring the film's gross to over $200 million.
Warner Bros.' "Jersey Boys" will continue to struggle, as it did over its first weekend. The musical has made only $20 million in its first week, and based on the lack of response to the movie, it will likely drop another 50 percent. Expect the Clint Eastwood film to end the weekend with $7 million, for a total of $27 million.
In art house cinemas, Weinstein Co. will release "Begin Again," starring Keira Knightley, Mark Ruffalo, Adam Levine and Hailee Steinfeld. The musical comedy is slated to open in five theaters and has received a strong marketing push. The film also has good reviews and good word-of-mouth after a successful festival run, including a premiere at the Toronto Film Festival. Weinstein Co. intends to expand the feature July 2 nationwide.
Meanwhile, Weinstein's boutique label Radius TWC will release critically acclaimed science fiction feature "Snowpiercer." The company has decided to release the feature in eight theaters before expanding it nationwide. Interestingly, Radius will break from tradition and avoid its usual On-Demand distribution plan. The feature has gotten a lot of buzz since it premiered at the Berlin Film Festival and is being marketed as counter-programing to "Transformers."
Meanwhile, Lionsgate will release the fictional documentary "America" in three theaters. The film speculates on what the United States would be had it lost the Revolutionary War. Lionsgate hopes to create word-of-mouth this weekend before releasing the movie nationwide in time for Independence Day.
Sony Pictures Classics will expand "Third Person" into 13 theaters, raising its theater count to 18. The Paul Haggis feature opened last weekend to scathing reviews and failed to attract audiences.
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