Credit Suisse Study 2022 Qatar World Cup Economic Fallout With Bribery Investigation Results Still Pending
While FIFA awaits the results of their investigation into bribery allegations that led to Qatar winning the 2022 World Cup bid, banking industry specialists are making their own assessment as to the economic fallout should the Middle Eastern country lose their hosting rights to the quadrennial tournament.
A recent report by global financial services company Credit Suisse suggested short-term pains for Qatar, with equities dropping by 20 percent should FIFA strip Qatar of the 2022 World Cup. Although losing the soccer tournament may slow down some of the country's grand ambitions -- such as new stadiums, a rail network, metro lines, and even the creation of a brand new city named Lusail located along the Persian Gulf, where 2022 World Cup finale will be held and will include a commercial district, a lagoon, four islands, two marinas, an upscale shopping mall, a hospital, a zoo, two golf courses and house 250,000 people in a 28-square mile area -- losing the 2022 World Cup will not derail the country's economic growth trajectory.
In fact, Credit Suisse does not believe that hosting the World Cup will have any major lasting economic effect on Qatar should they lose the World Cup based on recent history, with the majority of those projects slated to move forward regardless FIFA's decision.
"History suggests that while such events promote growth and employment in the tourism and hospitality industries, the benefits are not translated into sustained economic growth unless it is supported by a long-term strategy for the improvement in infrastructure that directly benefits the economy and its residents," concluded Credit Suisse.
Qatar World Cup organizers have already been forced to scale back some of their plans after a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report noted that costs for stadium construction would exceed the proposed $95 billion presented to FIFA officials during the bidding process. Qatar organizers have negotiated with FIFA officials to cut the number of proposed venues from 12 to nine venues due to the overrun in cost. Qatar has already encountered delays on the metro system and are behind schedule on constructing a new airport.
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"As is the case with any FIFA World Cup, once a country is chosen as host, a review of the bid plans is made with the organizers to propose the final host cities and stadia projects, which then need to be approved by the FIFA Executive Committee," said Qatar's Supreme Committee for Delivery & Legacy in a statement to Bloomberg.com. "The requirement is a minimum of eight and a maximum of 12 stadia."
Losing the 2022 World Cup is a grim possibility with Qatar currently under investigation after former FIFA official Mohammed bin Hammam was accused of having paid over $5.35 million in bribes from slush funds to win the Qatar's World Cup bid.
FIFA's investigation is being led by international lawyer Michael Garcia -- a former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York who led the investigation against disgraced former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer. Garcia's previous duties include running the Immigrations and Customs Enforcement agency for the Department of Homeland Security under President George W. Bush and was a candidate to run the Federal Bureau of Investigation prior to President Barack Obama extending Robert Mueller's contract.
"He will have not only to write, but the duty to have this case analyzed on ethic, moral matters and then to report back to the executive committee," said FIFA president Sepp Blatter.
Five of the World Cup's six main sponsors -- Sony, Adidas, Coca-Cola, Visa and Hyundai/Kia -- have expressed concern over the bribery allegations, not wanting to be linked with a tainted tournament that would embarrass the brands partnering up with the international governing soccer organization.
"We are in constant contact with our commercial affiliates, including Adidas, Sony and Visa, and they have 100% confidence in the investigation currently being conducted by FIFA's independent ethics committee," said FIFA marketing director Thierry Weil to the BBC. "Our sponsors have not requested anything that is not covered by the ongoing investigation by the ethics committee."
If Qatar were to lose the 2022 World Cup, FIFA Vice-President Jim Boyce suggested that a re-vote be held, giving the countries that lost out to the Middle Eastern country -- the United States, Japan, South Korea and Australia -- another opportunity to win the rights to host the tournament, with the U.S. a heavy favorite after coming in second place the first time around.
"I, certainly as a member of the executive committee, would have absolutely no problem whatsoever if the recommendation was for a re-vote," said Boyce. "If Garcia comes up with concrete evidence and concrete evidence is given to the executive committee and to Fifa, then it has to be looked at very seriously. The FIFA executive committee are 100% behind Garcia."
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