Ebola Virus Outbreak: Ebola Could Infect 1.4 Million by January, CDC Report Says
If Ebola continues to spread in West Africa without proper methods to treat and prevent the disease, 1.4 million people could be infected by Jan. 20.
That is the worst-case scenario given in a report released Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to The New York Times. In this scenario, Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 Ebola cases by the end of this month.
The CDC's best-case situation is somewhat sunnier, saying that if the dead are properly buried and 70 percent of patients are treated properly, the Ebola breakout could be "almost ended" by Jan. 20.
Currently, only 18 percent of patients in Liberia and 40 percent of patients in Sierra Leone are treated properly.
The actual toll of Ebola come Jan. 20 is likely to be somewhere in the middle of those two extremes, as conditions are neither as bad as assumed in the worst-case scenario nor as good as assumed in the best-case.
"My gut feeling is, the actions we're taking now are going to make that worst-case scenario not come to pass," said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, director of the CDC. "But it's important to understand that it could happen."
The official Ebola case count is 5,843, of which 2,803 have died, according to figures from the World Health Organization, which says the actual number of Ebola cases likely is 2.5 times higher.
The CDC and WHO agreed that if West Africa doesn't get a handle on Ebola by the end of the month, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone will be diagnosing and burying thousands of people per week due to the virus.
Based on the African situation and the dire predictions, international aid has increased in the last few weeks. Last week, U.S. President Barack Obama pledged to send 3,000 military troops to Liberia and to build 17 100-bed hospitals in that country, according to USA Today.
Frieden said the Defense Department had already delivered parts of a 25-bed unit that will be used to treat health care wooers who get infected. He also said that various aid groups are flocking to the region to set up shop.
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