Colorado Senate Race 2014 Polls: Democrat Mark Udall Winning Latino Vote While Republican Cory Gardner Leads Overall
Colorado's U.S. Senate election continues to be a statistical dead heat while the Latino vote could make a difference in the state.
Based on Marist College Institute for Public Opinion's latest polling data, Republican candidate, and current U.S. Representative for Colorado's 4th District, Cory Gardner has a 1-percentage point advantage against Democratic incumbent Mark Udall. Among likely Colorado voters, Gardner received 46 percent of the survey and 45 percent favored Udall.
"To seal up the potential crack in the Democratic firewall for the U.S. Senate, Udall needs a big ground game," Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Director Dr. Lee M. Miringoff said. "He trails among those who have already voted by 12 points."
Early voters in Colorado could benefit Gardner as 54 percent supported the Republican candidate while Udall garnered 42 percent. Of voters that have yet to vote, 48 percent would vote for Udall while 41 percent went for Gardner.
Independent voters were also in a dead heat between the senatorial candidates. Independents slightly preferred Udall with 44 percent while 41 percent favored Gardner.
When it comes to race, Marist College identified the Latino voter group. Among Latino survey respondents, Udall received 48 percent, but Gardner was not far behind with 44 percent. Five percent of Latinos were undecided, and 2 percent would vote for another candidate. As Latino Decisions' Matt Barreto noted, the role of the Latino vote has received "almost all the attention" in Colorado's senate race. Colorado's Latino eligible voter population is 545,000, or 15.4 percent of the overall eligible electorate.
With white likely voters, Udall and Gardner's percentage rates were swapped with former receiving 44 percent to 48 percent.
According to a Latino Decisions and the National Council of La Raza Action Fund (NCLRAF)'s poll comprising of Latino voters in Colorado, Udall received 55 percent of the vote to Gardner's 14 percent. A total of 31 percent of respondents were undecided. The undecided votes included "undecided lean Udall" (11 percent), "undecided lean Gardner" (3 percent) and simply "undecided" (17 percent).
"Latinos are poised to once again be a deciding factor in Colorado's tight race for Senate where both candidates are virtually tied," NCLRAF Executive Director Matthew McClellan said. "The window of opportunity to engage this electorate is rapidly closing as we draw closer to Election Day. If either candidate wants to boost their numbers with Latinos, then they will need to get serious about the issues that matter most to this community."
The Latino Decisions and NCLRAF survey was conducted between Sept. 19 and Sept. 28, with 400 Latinos participating. The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll, also conducted for NBC News, comprised of 1,069 adults from Colorado between Oct. 18 and Oct. 22.
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