Price of Cocoa Falls as Harvesting in West Africa Increases and Demand Decreases
On Oct. 27, for the first time since May, cocoa futures ended below $3,000 a ton in the midst of the ramping up of the harvest in West Africa and impuissant demand in various regions, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Despite the fact that the data comprises production from two different factories, the Cocoa Association of Asia disclosed a plunge of 5.9 percent in third-quarter grindings to 151,643 metric tons last week. Grindings are viewed as a proxy for demand in chocolate.
As figures from the Brussels-based European Cocoa Association indicated in earlier October, in Europe -- the world's biggest per-capita chocolate consumer -- third-quarter cocoa grindings dropped 1.1 percent on the year to 327,866 metric tons. Various chocolate companies have experienced similar outcomes.
In 2014, various chocolate companies from Peru to Italy noted that a slowdown in demand in Asia is exceptionally alarming to the market since their growth is driven and determined by rising demand for their products in that region.
For the first time, the most actively traded cocoa contract ended below the psychological level of $3,000 a ton within five months. With the lowest level since May 20, cocoa for delivery in December on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange ended down 2.6 percent at $2,970 a ton.
Nevertheless, some regions have had more success than others.
According to Euromonitor, in India, chocolate sales are expected to soar by 14 percent this year, while China -- up from 10th in 2010 -- is now the world's eighth-largest chocolate consumer. North America's quarterly figure beat market expectations and made record sales.
Fears that the Ebola virus could spread to Ivory Coast or Ghana, the two countries that produce about 60 percent of the world's cocoa, sent prices for cocoa to a 3½-year high on futures markets late last month.
Jack Scoville, vice president at Price Futures Group in Chicago, sees support emerging around $2,950 a ton.
"With the harvest coming on, if we don't see [Ebola in cocoa-growing countries, prices are] going to crash and that's exactly what's been happening," he told WSJ.
In Brazil, the top exporter of the commodity, subsequently after voters re-elected President Dilma Rousseff, the country's real currency plummeted, with raw sugar for delivery in March ending at 16.03 cents a pound and falling 2.1 percent on the day at the lowest settlement since Sept. 24.
With the local currency (Brazilian real) now at a near-decade low against the U.S. dollar on Monday afternoon, Brazil is encouraging exports of sugar, as producers are obtaining more of the real back for their sweetener sold abroad in U.S. dollars.
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