Ballon d'Or 2015 Predictions: Why Chelsea's Thibaut Courtois Could Win It All

By David Salazar Nov 04 2014, 11:07 AM EST

The Ballon d'Or is a rather odd award.

For starters, being a forward and scoring goals is the best way to win the trophy. Just ask Lionel Messi, who managed to keep the trophy for four straight years thanks to his dominant goal scoring form. Or Ronaldo, who took the award a year ago after a calendar year in which he failed to win a single trophy, but racked up the goals ad nauseum.

Defenders rarely get the award -- only one was nominated in 2014 -- which makes it all the more interesting when not one, but two goalies are shortlisted among the 23. And it is possible that one of the two could wind up among the top three in voting.

The goalie who seems like more of a long shot at this point is Belgian keeper Thibaut Courtois.

Courtois is establishing himself as the cream of the goaltending crop around the world and was just given his first crack at the Ballon d'Or. But is he along for the ride? Or could the award be in his future?

Top Moment

Courtois had a lot of great moments in 2014. He made his World Cup debut. He was the main reason behind Atletico Madrid's tremendous run in 2013-14. And he has enjoyed a solid start to life with Chelsea.

So where to choose the top moment? There are many.

For starters, Courtois' excellent performance against AC Milan in the first leg of the Champions League Round of 16 essentially put Atletico through to the next round. Safe to say that, without his performance, the team would have had a big hill to climb in the second leg.

He was also terrific in taking down Barcelona three times in early 2014; Lionel Messi did not score a single goal against him. He was crucial in Atletico's elimination of Blaugrana in the quarterfinals of the Champions League and the final match of the Spanish League which clinched the title.

He was also solid in the World Cup, though he was rarely tested throughout the tournament.

Low Point

There have to be two in this category. The first would be the Champions League final. For 95 minutes, he kept a clean sheet. But at the death, he failed to stop Sergio Ramos' famed header (a hard task to be sure) and then he imploded by conceding three more goals in extra time.

The second low moment would come in the World Cup quarterfinals against Argentina. There can be no doubt that Gonzalo Higuain's game winner in the seventh minute was a tough shot. But Courtois looked slow in reacting and probably could have done better to prevent the tally.

Why He Could Win it All

He would need a huge performance for club and country the rest of the way. Something in the form of clean sheets in every game and multiple eye-dropping saves. He has four clean sheets for Chelsea since the start of the year, so expecting him to finish the calendar year with double that amount is unlikely. But, then again, anything is possible.

Why He Has No Chance at Winning

As noted, goaltenders and defenders are not favored in the voting. Goaltending is especially rare and no major netminder in recent history has finished among the top three. When Iker Casillas put together an incredible run in 2012, many thought he could compete among the top three. But he finished sixth in voting with 3.18 percent of the votes. And he won the Spanish League title, the Euro 2012 Cup and also put together a tremendous run of performance in which he did not concede a single goal.

Courtois won the Spanish League title, but did little else internationally. You do the math.