Ballon d'Or 2015 Predictions: Why Mario Goetze is a Dark Horse Contender

By David Salazar First Posted: Nov 08, 2014 02:32 PM EST

There are some players that carry the greatest burdens of all.

The so-called wunderkinds, for example, are expected to arrive at the pantheon of soccer greats and excel there for years. The difficulty in this level expectation is in deciding what is expected of each player and when they will have fulfilled their potential. Not everyone can score the way Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo can (in fact, none have ever scored at that pace).

This has been the shadow following Mario Goetze throughout his still young career. The 22-year-old German and hero of the 2014 FIFA World Cup Final has been identified as the next Messi because of his prolific passing and vision as well as his solid scoring. But he has yet to reach that level of indispensability. Throughout last season, he was still fighting for a starting position in Pep Guardiola's Bayern Munich side; he finished the 2013-14 season with just 20 starts.

Now, he is as close to indispensable as they come. And that has resulted from his ability to deliver in the clutch. It is that level that has also garnered him his first ever nomination among the 23 finalists for the Ballon d'Or. But does he have what it takes?

Top Moment

There are a number of high points in world soccer. But arguably the greatest of all comes every four years. In 2002, Ronaldo attained his moment. In 1998, it was Zinedine Zidane. In 2010, it was Andres Iniesta.

In 2014, it was Mario Goetze.

The story goes that the German, who started the World Cup as one of the titular XI for Germany, slowly found himself more and more on the bench as the tournament deepened. His inconsistency had made him dispensable for his nation, especially without major superstars shining brightly. Many could argue that he deserved a spot over Mesut Ozil, but Joachim Loew clearly felt otherwise.

With the score tied at 0-0 in extra time, Loew decided that he was going to send out the youngster. According to reports, the coach told Goetze to prove that he was better than Messi.

And with the clock winding down and penalties beckoning, that is exactly what Goetze did. He scored a terrific goal to give Germany a 1-0 victory over Argentina and clinch the country's fourth World Cup title.

It does not get better than that for anyone.

Low Point

It is hard to actually say 2014 included a low point for Goetze. He won two trophies with Bayern Munich and then lifted the World Cup. He has gotten off to a solid start in 2014-15, with six goals in nine matches; he had 10 in all of 2013-14.

But if there is ever a low point for the German, it was the 4-0 butchering at the hands of Real Madrid. Goetze did not come into the game until the 72nd minute, but by the time he arrived on the pitch, his team was eliminated from reclaiming its Champions League title.

Why He Can Win it All

Back when Andres Iniesta scored the big goal in the World Cup final, he essentially clinched a top three spot. He earned 16.48 percent of the votes, just six percent less that eventual winner Lionel Messi. That goal propelled him past Wesley Sneijder who earned over 14 percent of the vote and won the treble that season with Internazionale.

Goetze's goal is on the level of Iniesta's, and he also won more trophies in 2014 than the Spaniard had done in 2010 with Barcelona. Furthermore, Goetze's form to end 2014 has been scintillating to say the least. He has six goals in nine matches for Bayern and has averaged 1.7 key passes per game while completing over 87 percent of his passes per game. That bodes well for anyone playing under Pep Guardiola. If he continues his current paces, he could easily slide into the top three and potentially swoop by Messi and Ronaldo. When Ronaldo won the trophy last year, he did not even managed 30 percent of the vote. It is possible that the same could happen again this year, and Goetze could find a way to parlay his play and game winner into a victory.

Why He Won't Win

He scored the game winner. And that is huge. But he hardly had a great World Cup. He started three of the seven, did not play one and came off the bench on three different occasions. When Iniesta worked his magic in 2010, he was a major piece of Spain's team. And Iniesta did not win the Ballon d'Or in 2010. Other German players nominated for the trophy played bigger roles than Goetze did, and that alone will take him out of the running.

Regarding his Bayern success, Goetze was not a major piece there, either. And Arjen Robben, who also had a tremendous World Cup, is arguably more likely to be among the top three. Again, many of the Germans that won the World Cup and also got nominated also contributed more than Goetze did for their club.