Ballon d'Or 2015 Predictions: Why Lionel Messi is On Track to Claim Fifth Best Player of the Year Award

By David Salazar First Posted: Nov 22, 2014 10:34 AM EST

Over the last six years, the Ballon d'Or award has become the main means of resolving the biggest conflict in all of soccer -- Messi vs. Ronaldo.

Lionel Messi won four straight Ballon d'Or trophies between 2010 and 2013 before injuries, coupled by a strong goalscoring surge from his rival, impeded him from winning a fifth straight award.

But now Messi has a huge chance to reclaim the title in 2014. But can he do it?

Top Moment

Back in 2010, Messi scored zero goals as Argentina dropped out of the World Cup in South Africa. A year later, the national side was woeful as the host of the Copa America.

And since then, the questions over Argentina's captain and his ability to rise to the occasion for his nation have only grown.

Many pointed to 2014 as a huge opportunity for him to turn doubters into believers. At 26, he is in his prime years and was playing on his home continent. A better opportunity would not present itself.

And it surely will not.

Messi turned up in Brazil and scored four goals in the opening three games; two of those goals were game-winners that showcased his ability to deliver in the clutch. He also created Angel Di Maria's winner against Switzerland in the round of 16.

And, ultimately, Argentina made it all the way to final. Despite losing, Messi was given the Golden Ball as the top player in the tournament.

Mission somewhat accomplished.

Low Point

Barcelona's trophy-less year aside, the World Cup was a low point for Messi. He scored four goals in the group rounds, but faded as the tournament went deep. He was virtually non-existent against the Dutch in the semifinal and missed a glorious chance to win the World Cup final.

The final moments of the big game, in which he fired a free kick over the net, symbolized his tournament overall. So close to making an impression and yet so far off the mark.

It did not help that the most embarrassing of moments came after the tournament when he was awarded the Golden Ball and was criticized time and again thereafter. Argentina legend Diego Maradona publicly stated that Messi was not deserving of the award and that it was merely a PR stunt.

Why He Will Win It

When all is said and done, the trophy is a popularity contest. And by all accounts, Messi is a highly popular guy.

But he did deliver on the world stage and has received plaudits for transforming his game. While he is not scoring as many goals as one is used to (he still has 46 in 59 games this calendar year), he has embraced his role as a creator and has put together 21 assists in 2014.

He also recently tied Raul's record as the top scorer in the Champions League and could break it in his next game for Barcelona.

Why He Will Not Win It

Cristiano Ronaldo is scoring at a tremendous pace and has 52 goals in 52 games this season to go along with 16 assists. Goal scoring streaks to end the calendar year have had huge impacts on voting and Ronaldo's finish to 2014 (in which he has scored 23 goals in 17 matches for Los Blancos) is simply too good to ignore. Compare that with Messi's 11 goals and the gap looks rather imposing.