Three years ago, the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences implemented a new rule that would allow five to 10 films to be nominated for the Best Picture award. As a result, it would be a bit unpredictable to see how many films would get nominated and which films would be shortlisted.

Ever since the rule was implemented, nine films have made the Best Picture race and, in some cases, there have been a number of surprises.

This year, looks like it will hard to guess how many films will be in the Best Picture category. The race is quite crowded, with a number of films already considered locks. The two big locks are "Boyhood" and "Birdman." Both films have generated the most buzz with critics' circles and have been nominated at the Golden Globes and SAG awards. Additionally, they are critical darlings and films that have been relatively successful at the box office.

The third film that is likely to be nominated is "The Grand Budapest Hotel." It was suspected that its SAG nomination would be a fluke but, after having been nominated at the Globes for Best Director and Best Screenplay and also having been nominated for the Critics' Choice, the film is likely to be up for Best Picture. The movie was also a huge box office hit, which crossed over to the mainstream.

Ava Duvernay's "Selma" is also a lock for Best Picture. The film has scored rave reviews after its presentation at the AFI Film Festival and has been nominated for Globes and Critics' Choice awards. Additionally, it is likely that the film will be nominated for Best Director, which would make history as the first black American female to be nominated in the category. "Selma" is also the type of movie that appeals to the Academy, especially since it is based on real life events.

Two British biopics will likely round out the locked films. The Weinstein Company's "The Imitation Game" and Focus Features' "The Theory of Everything" scored nominations at the SAG awards and Best Picture nominations at the Golden Globes. They were big festival films which had numerous fans. However, while these films will likely get Best Picture nominations, a director nod is unlikely as they have failed to be shortlisted in various awards.

A number of films have buzz, but continue to be on the fringe line. "Gone Girl," for example, has been nominated for Best Director all over, but was mysteriously absent from the Best Picture race at the Globes. It missed the SAG nomination for Best Cast. The film is a genre picture that the Academy generally does not recognize. Fincher's thrillers have also failed to generate awards buzz in the past.

"Nightcrawler" also has a similar issue as it is a thriller which does not generally appeal to the Academy. However, the film has obtained an increasing amount of buzz after winning a number of critics' circles. Additionally, Jake Gyllenhaal has surprised with a number of awards organizations increasing the buzz.

Also fighting for a spot is "Foxcatcher." After the Cannes Film Festival, it was expected the movie would be a huge awards hit. However, it has failed to generate the buzz expected due to its gloomy tone. While it was nominated at the Golden Globes, it failed to get nominated at the Critics' Choice awards, which are important Oscar predictors. Critics' Circles have also failed to award the movie in any category.

While "Whiplash" was a universally praised film, the movie failed to get Globe nominations and it has stumbled at the box office. Audiences have not been enthusiastic as many expected. While it will most likely get J.K. Simmons an Oscar, the film is still not a sure bet for Best Picture.

"A Most Violent Year" has also failed to generate the support it had at the festival circuit. While the film won the National Board of Review for Best Picture, it is still losing a lot of ground, especially since it comes out so late. The lack of Critics' Choice and Golden Globe nominations have also affected it buzz.

Other films that are still fighting for a spot include "Into the Woods," "American Sniper," "Unbroken" and "Mr. Turner."

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