Ballon d'Or 2016 Analysis, Stats: Could Mesut Ozil Ever Be a Candidate?
Winning the Ballon d'Or is the dream of every soccer player in the world.
And why wouldn't it be? To win the award is to be recognized as the finest soccer player in the entire universe.
But the problem is that the award is tough to get and the last few years have required superhuman feats to claim ownership of the trophy. Exhibit A: Lionel Messi. Exhibit B: Cristiano Ronaldo.
In essence, to win the award these days you have to overcome either of those two titans.
Which makes the follow proclamation from Mesut Ozil rather shocking.
"If I continue to develop well and stay healthy, I would like, in the next few years, to hold the Ballon d'Or in my hands, I am convinced that it can happen," said Ozil according to Goal.com. "I'm feeling very positive. I'm a world champion and I play at a top club in the Premier League. There is much more of a physical test here than there is in Spain or in the Bundesliga - I constantly have bruises, but that makes me harder. I feel physically better than ever."
The German was once hailed as a future superstar. That was in 2010 when he was the face of the German national side and was promptly purchased by Real Madrid to be its main playmaker. He had several great years for Los Blancos, but was eventually seen as the odd man out and got shipped off to England in 2013.
The resulting years have been far from kind to Ozil and despite winning the World Cup last summer, few would call him a franchise player and much less a superstar.
Ozil has always been known as an offensive ace, but his work since joining Arsenal has been far from complementary. He has averaged three key passes per game over the course of his career, but has been well below average since joining Arsenal; his high point was in 2013-14 when he managed 2.9 key passes in 26 appearances. This season he is barely managing 2.5 key passes per game. Part of that has a lot to do with usage as he has only played in 14 matches for Arsenal in 2014-15. He is actually averaging more passes per game than ever in his entire career, which makes the dip in key passes per game all the more surprising. His passing success rate has also seen an increase this year.
He is also averaging more crosses per game at 1.9, certainly a product of playing in England. But that number is up from the 1.4 he was averaging in 2013-14.
That said, he is averaging 1.5 long balls per game, matching his output in 2013-14, but it's still a far cry from the numbers he was obtaining with Real Madrid when he was averaging close to two long balls per game. Through balls are also low for Ozil; his career average stands at 0.4 per game, but he is averaging just 0.2 per game in 2014-15.
Ozil has three goals for Arsenal and five assists, but those numbers are not even close to the best on his own team. He is averaging 1.5 shots per game, above his career average of 1.2 and he is also making more dribbles per game this year than in the past.
The problem for Ozil is that time is against him. At 26 he should be in the prime of his career and, if he plans to win the Ballon d'Or, he should be the best player on his team by a wide margin. But no one would ever make that claim. He could improve if he gains greater confidence in the next few years, but then he would need to put up some extraordinary numbers, win a few major trophies with club and country and hope that Messi and Ronaldo decline rapidly. And he probably has to hope that other players, such as Neymar, for example, do not get in his way.
Then, and only then, will he win the Ballon d'Or.
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