Champions League Quarterfinals Preview - Bayern Munich vs. Porto: Why Munich is Favorite
The Champions League quarterfinals feature some unique contests, but there is one that could wind up lacking any suspense whatsoever.
That match-up would be the one between Bayern Munich and Porto. The Bavarian side is seen by many as a heavy favorite to lift the Euro trophy in just a few months.
Munich has made the semifinals three years in a row and was a finalist in two of those three years. In fact, last season the team was seen as a title contender until it was trounced 5-0 over two legs by Real Madrid. Those lessons have undoubtedly been learned and Munich should be a heavier favorite this time around, with Madrid far weaker and Barcelona playing a similar style to Munich but lacking as compact a defense.
Meanwhile, Porto faltered at the group stage in 2013-14. In the last 10 years, the team has made it to the knockout rounds six times, but this is the first time it made it to the quarterfinals in that span.
So from this historical information alone, no one would peg Porto to get past Munich in any manner whatsoever.
So what does this match-up really come down to? Here are the central questions that will unfold in this two-legged drama.
How Will Arjen Robben's Injury Affect Munich?
The Dutchman is, without any doubts, the best player to wear Munich's red jersey. He leads the team in goals, is the finest dribbler in the side and adds a major dimension to the metronomic tiki taka game of Munich.
The team did manage to win against a weak Dortmund side without him, but the team was decidedly outshot and even outpossessed in that match. Of course, many will question whether Pep Guardiola got the tactics right with his 3-1-4-2 formation, but the reality is that the team simply lacked the dynamism that Robben provides up front. For all their skill, Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski are nowhere near as mobile as Robben -- neither are Rafinha or Bernat.
For Porto, this is a huge boon. No goals from Robben means that the team might have an easier time defending against the rest of the attackers. It is certainly a tall order, but far more manageable without the flying Dutchman.
Will Porto's Youthful Exuberance be Enough to Overcome German Giants?
By definition, Porto is a very hot team right now. Since the start of the year the team has played 19 matches and has lost just two of them. Throw in three draws into that mix and you have a side winning 14 games in 2015. More impressively, this team has lost just four games all season, furthering the notion that this Porto side knows how to win. Munich has lost three games all season long despite being far and away the best side in all of Germany.
A lot of that winning from Porto has come from its youth. According to WhoScored.com, the average age of the team's best starting XI is 22. The oldest of those players, Jackson Martinez, is 28.
There is no real standout with a number of players making major contributions this year in the UCL. Martinez leads side in European scoring with five goals. Hector Herrera leads in assists while Cristian Tello makes crucial key passes more often than any other player. Casemiro is adept on both sides of the ball while left back Danilo has been a revelation in all facets of the game.
If these youngsters believe they can upset Munich and play that way, then maybe they will do just that.
Pep Guardiola's Tactics
Guardiola loves his tiki taka, but he has often moved about his formation to experiment. The 4-3-3 is his preferred situation but without Robben, he lacks the wing depth to play the system.
Enter the 3-1-4-2 which certainly helps in the offensive half but is a huge problem in defending from a counter attack. Porto can exploit those gaps, something that could create some nightmares for the Catalan.
Predictions
Munich should win this easily across two legs. Do not be surprised by a 4-1 or even 5-0 blow out.
Subscribe to Latin Post!
Sign up for our free newsletter for the Latest coverage!