CNN Poll: Clinton Ties Christie for 2016 Presidential Race, Holds Strong Lead Over Other Republican Rivals
According to a CNN/ORC International poll released on Thursday that was purported as a possible preview of the 2016 presidential election, former first lady Hillary Clinton would come in tied neck-and-neck with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie if the vote was counted today.
The poll shows that if she were to run, Clinton would "instantly become the overwhelming frontrunner" for the Democratic nomination. Contender Christie is the top pick for the Republican ticket and although a race between those two would be a knuckle biter, Clinton would easily lead against any other GOP nominee.
"The statistical tie between the Garden State governor and the former secretary of state is pretty remarkable compared to how Christie's potential GOP rivals do against Clinton in the CNN poll at this early stage of the game," said CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser.
Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, House Budget Committee chairman and 2012 Republican vice presidential nominee is Clinton's top competition after Christie but the numbers show that she leads him by a solid eight points. In third place for this 2016 mockup election is Sen. Paul Rand of Kentucky, who trails Clinton by 13 points.
Of the other Republican presidential potentials, Clinton leads former Arkansas Gov. and 2008 GOP presidential candidate Mike Huckabee by 15 points; Texas Gov. Rick Perry who sought the nomination in the 2012 election trails by 17 points and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is down by 18 points. Clinton leads Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and 2012 GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum by 19 points. Finally, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush trails Clinton by 21 points.
So it seems that the real race, assuming both parties take part, is between Christie and Clinton. Thursday's CNN poll shows that of the respondents that were surveyed, 48 percent of registered voters would support Christie while 46 percent say they would vote Clinton.
According to CNN Polling Director Keating Holland, Christie performs notably well among Independents, taking 60 percent of the vote in that "key" group. Christie also wins a majority of "suburbanites and older voters, something that no other GOP hopeful [that was] tested was able to do against Clinton," Holland said.
The poll shows a gender gap, with Christie having a 14-point lead among men and Clinton leading the female vote by 10 percent. The numbers also show some distinct regional differences across the country between the two candidates.
"Christie doesn't win in the Northeast, although he does hold Clinton to a bare majority there," Holland said. "He has a solid edge in the Midwest while playing Clinton to a draw in the South and West."
Holland noted, however, that surveys taken this early in a presidential cycle are often heavily influenced by name recognition and that they often pale in predictive value when taken so many years before the actual election.
The CNN survey was conducted by ORC International between Dec. 16 and Dec. 19, with 950 registered voters nationwide who were polled by telephone. The sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.
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