As Latin Post reported, the Republican Party has been making the effort to attract Latino voters, but one polling firm revealed the GOP needs to work twice as hard compared to the 2012 presidential season.

Based on a study by Latino Decisions' David Damore and Matt Barreto, different scenarios were presented and identified the Latino voter turnout rate needed for Republicans to reclaim the White House on Election Day 2016.

According to Barreto and Damore's research, the GOP cannot assume that winning at least 40 percent of the Latino vote will secure them the White House. According to the pollsters, the GOP has maintained to 2004 statistics, when then-President George W. Bush won at least 40 percent of the Latino vote.

In the 2012 election, Latino Decisions determined that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won 23 percent of the Latino vote, but the GOP needs to heavily improve Latino engagement for 2016. Based on the first scenario, revisiting 2012's statistics, Damore and Barreto found that the Republican Party would need 52 percent of the Latino vote to win a majority of the popular vote.

"Under Scenario 1, Latino support for the GOP is varied, while the Non-Latino share of the electorate performs as in 2012," said the Latino Decisions report. "This represents a worst-case scenario for the Republicans as it recreates the voting behavior that facilitated President Obama's reelection, while also increasing the size of the Latino electorate by 1.19 points."

In Latino Decisions' second scenario, the projection is that the black vote will decline since voting for the African-American president factor is no longer in effect. In contrast, white voters are more likely to turnout to vote. As a result, the GOP would need 47 percent of the Latino vote to win a majority of the popular vote.

The third scenario is a projection that white voters fully support the Republican Party candidate at levels seen during the 2014 midterm election season while black and Democratic voter support returns to pre-Obama rates. Damore and Barreto said this would be the best-case scenario for the GOP, as they will need only 42 percent of the Latino vote.

The Latino voter turnout in key battleground states could also swing the GOP's outcome. Using the second scenario projection for Colorado, the Republican Party requires 44 percent of the Latino vote in the state. The projections increase in Nevada and Florida with 45 percent and 47 percent, respectively. In New Mexico, 42 percent of the Latino vote is needed for the Republican Party.

Based on their projections, Barreto and Damore assume the Latino vote will grow for the 2016 election, adding, "Latino political participation cannot be taken for granted as many Latinos continue to feel alienated from the political process, particularly in light of the political system's failure to deliver comprehensive immigration reform."

"Moreover, even in presidential elections, Latino registration and turnout lags behind population share," the report continued. "Mobilizing and enlarging the Latino electorate is particularly acute for Democrats. Indeed, it is because of the overwhelming support of Latino voters that the Democrats are better positioned in many of the swing states needed to cobble together the 270 Electoral College necessary for the presidency."

During a press call on July 17, Barreto noted the Latino voter turnout rate is estimated at 10.39 percent for 2016, or slightly more than 13 million Latinos, which is an increase from 2012's 11.2 million. He said a critical component will be the Latino voter mobilization.

The latest Latino Decisions report was based on U.S. Census P20 Reports and exit polls from previous presidential election years.

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For the latest updates, follow Latin Post's Politics Editor Michael Oleaga on Twitter: @EditorMikeO or contact via email: m.oleaga@latinpost.com.

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