In a study published last Thursday by the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, researchers laid out the similarities and differences of COVID-19 to the past influenza pandemic. They predicted its occurrence and transmission throughout the year.

According to the study, the current pandemic will subside when around 70 percent of the world becomes insusceptible to the disease. Even then, CIDRAP does not guarantee a smooth-flowing decline of the pandemic. Periodic outbreaks must be prepared for by the reinstitution of mitigation measures.


Mitigation Measures for the Next Two Years

Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the U.S. Dr. Anthony Fauci said in a news conference last April that the pandemic has compromised operations that the world once knew as normal.

"If you want to get back," he said, referring to the period he called "pre-coronavirus," he explained that what most people are used to, might not happen again anytime soon, considering that the threat is there.

Over a hundred laboratories worldwide are experimenting on vaccines and drugs to treat COVID-19, and researchers say that it is essential that more than one type of medication is manufactured to combat the disease.

Treatment is expected to be finalized and made available worldwide by 2021. Until then, federal authorities will strengthen measures to limit social interaction.

Like many of the past pandemics, more outbreaks are expected within the year, Fauci said.

However, because national budgets have bolstered healthcare systems, clinical trials for medical interventions are further supported to fight the disease to prevent a COVID-19 resurgence as bad as the first wave.

Authors of the study warn the media and the government to hold off reports of the pandemic diminishing soon. It is predicted to last as long as 2022. They added, "People need to be prepared for possible periodic resurgences of disease over the next two years."


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Scenarios for the Future of COVID-19

A report from CIDRAP at the University of Minnesota said that the virus might be more challenging to control than the previous strain. Federal authorities from all over the world might reinstitute and relax mitigation measures for as long as two years.

It is suggested that viral transmission of COVID-19 might be at its peak before symptoms occur. This, coupled with the long incubation period and added by asymptomatic cases, means the first wave has seen the worst of the current pandemic.

The first possible scenario is a series of peaks and valleys, in which the first wave of the pandemic is followed by a series of small waves throughout 1 to 2 years.

The second possible scenario predicts that the peak of the pandemic may happen sometime in the fall or winter season of 2020. Following this large wave will be smaller and less frequent waves throughout 2021 until it subsides.

The third possible scenario, and perhaps the least daunting, is that the first wave of the current coronavirus pandemic will be followed by a slow burn of periodic transmission and occurrence. While this was not seen in previous pandemics, it is a possibility for COVID-19.

The report concluded that everyone must prepare and expect a more extended distribution of COVID-19 activity within the next two years. Its initial global spread can be attributed to the lack of establishment of mitigation measures like social distancing and home isolation. Still, it is expected to be treatable by the end of 2021 at most.