Bolsonaro’s Military Takeover Highly Unlikely, Says Analysts
"The people are with us," he said to the crowd of supporters in the capital Brasilia. "The armed forces who are with the law, order, democracy, and freedom are on our side as well."
Some of the people raised banners that read, "Nós queremos as forças armadas no poder", which was Portuguese for "we want the armed forces in power".
Military takeover an unlikely possibility
Experts believe that due to the strong disapproval of the country's majority and the military itself, Bolsonaro is likely to refrain from arranging a military takeover of Brazil. Bolsonaro's presidency was acknowledged highly by the military as early back as during his 2018 campaign.
The president has brought back Brazil's generals into politics, something that was last seen in 1985 after a dictatorship that lasted over two decades.
"The [Armed Forces supported him] because they saw their only chance for the right to claim victory," military analyst João Roberto Martins Filho said. He added that the military "has always been hurt that it was removed from politics."
However, the abrupt call for a takeover by the military into politics amid the pandemic was not received well by military officials and analysts alike.
Defense Minister Fernando Azevedo e Silva explained that the Armed Forces were systems of the state that upheld the independence and harmony between branches of the federal government. He added that the Navy, the Army, and the Air Force "will always be on the side of law, order, democracy and liberty."
It is also widely believed by critics that Bolsonaro needs the military's support in the upcoming impeachment trials.
Political scientist David Magalhães said he had no idea how Bolsonaro would approach this, but he observed that the president's actions appeared to resemble that of a person who "isolated himself so that he's turning the people and the Armed Forces against other organizations."
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Bolsonaro returned the military to politics
Nine of the members of the cabinet are occupied by active and former military officials. As such, these positions have allowed the military more leeway for federal decisions that included the fiscal policy, the development of the Amazon, and the response of the government to the pandemic.
Political scientist Amy Erica Smith believed that these military officials might have believed themselves a formidable force in politics. If so, then she thought they were also most likely "worried" about the image of the military while Bolsonaro's leadership was being questioned.
She added that the crisis that the world was facing during the pandemic might raise the possibility that Brazil's military "might decide that civilian leadership isn't effective and decide to take over."
While the kind of military takeover that was remembered in Brazil's history by many remained a speck in the horizon, Smith predicted that the military generals had a great influence over Bolsonaro's fate as the president.
Either the military officials redeem Bolsonaro by turning him into the leader Brazil needs, or they join the measures to impeach him. In either choice, they will not lose a figurehead with a strong arm in the military since Bolosnaro's impeachment will result in the elevation of former military general and current Vice President Hamilton Mourão to presidency.
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