Weekend Box Office Predictions: 'Dawn of the Planet of the Apes' Should Win at Weekend Box Office
This weekend "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes" is expected to win the box office beating out "Transformers."
The latest film in the "Apes" franchise is expected to make $67 million in 3,967 theaters. The film has received great reviews and currently has a 93 percent aggregate score on Rotten Tomatoes. The movie is also already generating Oscar buzz for Andy Serkis who reprises his role as Cesar.
The film uses the performance-capture technique that was used in "Rise of the Planet of the Apes," "Avatar" and "Lord of the Rings." That technique and buzz for the 2011 film helped the movie generate $176 million.
"Dawn of the Planet of the Apes" has a new cast, and that could hurt the film as most audiences will have a hard time understanding and identifying with the characters. It could also suffer from franchise fatigue. The film has a dark subject manner, and with "Transformers; Age of Extinction" and "The Amazing Spider-Man 2" having performed to subpar results, this could hurt the film's ultimate opening weekend.
"Transformers: Age of Extinction" is expected to have a 52 percent drop at the box office and potentially make $17 million. The film has already generated a strong $194 million, but is still behind the first three installments. With terrible reviews and bad word-of-mouth, the robot movie is likely to end the weekend with $211 million.
Melissa McCarthy's "Tammy" is also likely to have a steep drop. The movie's week opening and mediocre weekday totals have only generated $41 million. The film is likely to make $12.8 million and should end the weekend with a total gross of $53.8 million. That is far weaker than McCarthy's 2013 films "Identity Thief" and "The Heat."
Holdovers "22 Jump Street" and "How to Train Your Dragon 2" will likely add $6 million to their totals. That would bring the Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill buddy comedy to $171 million and the animated Dreamworks flick to $152 million.
Meanwhile, "Earth to Echo" will have a steep drop. In its first seven days, it has only made $19 million. After flopping the first weekend, the movie will likely bring in $5 million and will bring its total to $24 million.
Similarly, "Deliver Us From Evil" will bring in another $5 million. The movie made $20 million in seven days and will likely end its weekend at $25 million.
In art house cinemas, IFC Films will open "Boyhood" in five theaters. The movie has obtained rave reviews and received a strong publicity campaign that has emphasized the 12-year approach to the filming. IFC has opted not to release the film on VOD or on Demand and plans to expand it nationwide next week. With many showtimes in New York and Los Angeles already sold out, it is possible the film will obtain an average of at least $50,000 per-theater and possibly much more.
Meanwhile, Sony Pictures Classics will open "Land Ho!" in four theaters. The Iceland comedy has obtained rave reviews, and with buzz out of the festival circuit, Sony should expect solid returns.
Weinstein Co. will expand "Begin Again" into 764 theaters and bring its total count to 939. Having already made $2.2 million in limited release, Weinstein Co. expects to make $3.3 million this weekend. With great reviews, the movie is on the verge of becoming one the few indie breakout hits of the year.
Open Road will also expand "Chef" after an incredible run. The movie continues perform strongly after nine weeks and has made $22 million. Expect another $1.5 million this weekend.
Radius-TWC will also expand "Snowpiercer" into another 104 theaters and bring its theater count to 354. The film is also opening on VOD, so it will be interesting to see how the movie performs theatrically. Having already made $1.5 million, the post-apocalyptic picture is still on the verge of becoming the highest grossing Radius film of all time.
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