Latin Post presents "Turnout", a series that features leading Latino politicians, government leaders and advocacy groups discussing and debating the most important issues facing the Latino voting bloc.

The Latino vote has become an influential electorate for political candidates, and political opinion research organization Latino Decisions has been analyzing the constituency's opinions even more as the 2016 presidential election nears.

Sylvia Manzano is one of three principals for Latino Decisions, a Latino political opinion research organization that provides insight and information about Latinos' political experiences, engagement and outlooks. During an interview with Latin Post, Manzano described the results of several surveys conducted by the firm on behalf of other organizations, and highlighted Latino voters' stances on hypothetical candidates and issues. One issue, however, appeared to have an imperative role regardless of political party affiliation: immigration.

Hillary Clinton

Latino Decisions asked Latino voters about Hillary Clinton, a potential Democratic presidential candidate, and how the electorate will vote based on her immigration stance. While Clinton receives a high favorability rating among Latinos, Latino Decisions surveyed further regarding her support of President Barack Obama's immigration executive actions.

"We found that while people generally have pretty high favorability for her, there is a soft spot that I think exist for almost any candidate, but I think it's interesting that it holds for her, too," Manzano said, referring to immigration.

The Latino Decisions poll found that Clinton's Latino support will decline by 55 percent if she fails to support the executive actions.

Manzano referenced Clinton's 2008 Democratic presidential election primary race, specifically the large support from Latinos toward the former New York senator, which she would win by at least a 2-to-1 margin.

"But what we find is that here is someone like her who has unprecedented levels of popularity -- always with Latinos -- even for somebody like her, positions on immigration can still [affect] support. We found that 55 percent of Hispanic voters said they would unlikely support her if she were to explicitly say she would not support, would not renew executive actions. I think that's telling in terms of how important that issue is," Manzano said, adding that if Clinton were to lose Latino voters on immigration, then that means everybody needs to pay attention to that issue.

Based on polling data, Manzano acknowledged Clinton is "way ahead" in hypothetical head-to-head elections against potential Republican Party candidates, but she noted most Latinos are not as familiar with the GOP candidates compared to the former secretary of state.

"I would still be careful about taking the head-to-head matchups in any polling seriously right now," Manzano explained. The Latino Decisions' principal recognized that such hypothetical head-to-head polling should convey to people how much a Republican candidate needs to catch up on their name recognition since voters already know Clinton.

Republicans & the Latino Vote

Following the 2014 midterm elections, Latino Decisions asked Latinos about their favorable and unfavorable views towards potential GOP presidential candidates, including Florida's former Gov. Jeb Bush and incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio.

"Forty percent [of Latino voters participating in the survey] told us they will have a hard time considering voting for any Republican candidate at all because the party has become so hostile and anti-immigration -- 40 percent, that's huge," Manzano said, noting that some eligible Latino voters' opinions could be based on partisanship, having strong Democratic values, and who would never vote for a Republican regardless of the name on the ballot.

According to Manzano, immigration issues have caused Republican candidates to lose support from the Latino electorate. Republicans had managed to increase their share of support of the Latino constituency notably during President George W. Bush's term, but the relationship has been "squandered" since he left office.

Manzano said some recent elections have seen Republican candidates attract the Latino voters, notably Nevada's gubernatorial race featuring Republican incumbent Brian Sandoval and Democrat Bob Goodman. Sandoval won a second term with an overall 71 percent of the vote against Goodman's 24 percent. Manzano said the Latino vote increased in Sandoval's favor in comparison to his first election in 2010.

"It's true, he didn't have a competitive opposition on the ballot, but the fact is Sandoval got, if not half, he got very close to half of the Latino vote. It had a lot to do with the fact that Sandoval has governed as somebody who's been respectful to the Hispanic community, he supports policies that the Hispanic community in his state supports, including Medicaid expansion and participating in the Obamacare program in a more cooperative fashion than we've seen happen in other states," Manzano said.

Based on candidates' behavior, Manzano said it is certainly possible for Republicans to do well with Latino voters.

"[Candidates] need to just not be antagonistic towards them, and Republicans know this too." Manzano highlighted the GOP's "Growth and Opportunity Project," which outlined recommendations for the Republican National Committee to "carefully craft a tone that takes into consideration the unique perspective of the Hispanic community" and that message development is "critical" to gain voters. One message was immigration, and the GOP report admitted the risk of losing the Latino electorate if comprehensive immigration reform is not supported.

While Latinos have told Latino Decisions that they may disagree with Republicans on issues such as the economy, education and healthcare, immigration reform passage could still sway the constituents in the GOP favor.

"That's exactly what it means to be a 'gateway' issue: People are open to listening to your party's message, to your policy ideas, to support you if they think that you are supportive of them on this one particular issue," Manzano said.

Manzano emphasized the effect of a candidate's message delivery. She said if a candidate uses terms such as "anchor babies," "illegals" and "invasion," then the candidate would turn Latino voters away.

If the Latino voter turnout is constant following the 2012 presidential election, Latino Decisions projects the Republican Party will lose the 2016 race. Manzano said a "serious" candidate has to show they are personable to voters, while hostility towards an electorate will not show any benefits.

__

For the latest updates, follow Latin Post's Michael Oleaga on Twitter: @EditorMikeO or contact via email: m.oleaga@latinpost.com.

Related