In 2016, the GOP will have to work harder than ever before to seize the enough of the Latino vote to win the presidency, requiring the support of nearly half the Latino vote, according to new estimates. The hard math may explain why some Republican candidates aren't even trying. 

Long Term Demographic Trends

The background to this can be seen in "An Awakened Giant: The Hispanic Electorate is Likely to Double by 2030", a 2012 report issued by Pew Hispanic Research, which predicted that the U.S. Latinos would cast the ballots that would win the presidency for some fortunate candidate by that year. 

With the median age of Latinos being significantly lower than the general public and the population on a decisive rise, Pew argued, the Latino community represented a great share of the age-eligible electorates already, and would continued to into the year 2030.

Near Term Effects

But while the U.S. is 15 years from 2030, the number of Hispanic voters eligible to vote in the next election likely already exceeds 13 million. According to Pew, that number was at 11.2 million just three years ago.

Mitt Romney, former republican presidential candidate, won the support of 23 percent of Latino voters during 2012's presidential election. However, during the upcoming 2016 election, the Republican candidate will need twice as much support if he intends to take up residency at the White House.

Latinos' rapid national growth has made them the growth segment of the U.S. electorate. But in the last six elections, only one Republican presidential candidate has won the favor of Latino voters.

With more than a dozen Republican candidates seeking presidency in the upcoming election, it's important to deduce exactly many how Latino votes Republican leaders might need in order to earn the presidency. Recently, Latino Decisions, a Latino political opinion research firm, prepared new analysis based on reports and polls to predict where Latino and non-Latinos votes will fall. The analysis was conducted for America's Voice, a group that advocates for immigration reform.

According to the polling firm, the Republican presidential candidate will need the support of between 42 and 47 percent of Latino voters to win the presidency, which slightly surpasses the longstanding assumption that Republican candidates needed just 40 percent of Latino votes.

Although Latinos' share of the electorate has grown, their support of the GOP has remained generally unchanged, with an exception of Latinos offering George W. Bush 39 percent of their interest, enabling his win in 2004.

Can Any Republican Cross the New 'Latino Threshold'?

The report presented several scenarios, documenting how the Latino and non-Latino vote would likely swing accordingly. Also, it indicated that the "Latino Threshold" -- the percentage of Latinos needed to vote Republican for a victory -- is no longer reliable, as the U.S. Latino population is much different than it was 12 years ago, and their votes will communicate their evolved interests.

Younger, far less conservative individuals have an interest in immigration and human rights. Every month over 50,000 Latinos celebrate their 18th birthdays, translating to a monthly inflow of potential voters. The researchers believe that Latinos will comprise 10.4 percent of the electorate next year.

With Donald Trump staining the GOP, which is already unpopular with immigration reform-minded Latinos, with his harsh anti-immigrant rhetoric and outrageous claims about Mexicans at the border, Republican candidates may find it difficult to capture the Latino votes they need in order to win in any case, and with any candidate. Janet Murguía, the head of the National Council of La Raza, actually went so far as to call out the Republican Party, itself, for its failure to denounce Trump's comments.

Meanwhile, Democratic front-runner Hilary Clinton has advertised her support of the Latino community and immigration reform.

David Damore and Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions explained some of the Republican Party's challenges when attempting to reach the Latino community, and why some in the GOP seem to be going as far as they can the opposite direction on the question of immigration, while others stay silent.

"Our model accentuates the tension between the Republican Party's long-term viability and the short-term goals of the party's presidential aspirants," wrote the authors. "Sensing that the party's Latino deficit is too large or that any moderation on immigration may undermine their ability to win the nomination, a number of candidates have already tacked to the right on immigration. Others have been unwilling to criticize the most strident anti-immigrant voices emanating from the field."